Technology in Warfare

The recent conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Red Sea highlight how emerging, low-cost technologies are revolutionizing modern warfare. The U.S. military must take urgent steps to adapt, including rethinking its operational doctrines, training programs, and procurement processes. This shift is necessary to keep pace with the rapid deployment of innovative technologies that have allowed nations like Ukraine to achieve significant military successes against larger, better-equipped adversaries. Ukraine's experience, particularly its ability to cripple a substantial portion of Russia’s Black Sea fleet and resist large-scale ground assaults, demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating cutting-edge technologies into military strategies. Despite limited resources, Ukraine's use of mass-produced, cost-effective drones and other unmanned systems has been a game-changer. These technologies have allowed for the rapid scale-up of capabilities, something the U.S. must replicate through new initiatives and partnerships with defense manufacturers. The evolution of warfare underscores that we are at a critical juncture where traditional methods may no longer suffice. The future of combat increasingly involves inexpensive, mass-produced drones and robotic systems that can deliver substantial firepower and intelligence capabilities. The U.S. must learn from Ukraine's approach and incorporate these lessons into its defense strategy to maintain its military edge in an era of rapidly evolving technologies.

Commercial quadcopters have been on the mainstream gadget scene for 15 years, proliferating across industries and among hobbyists. There's a swanky DJI store on New York City's Fifth Avenue, and you probably have a neighbor, not to mention a roofer, who owns a drone. So when researchers at the embedded-device security firm Red Balloon started seeing surprising quadcopter accessories on Chinese shopping platforms like Temu and AliExpress, they didn't think much of it at first. As with any popular gadget type, there's a whole ecosystem of niche, wacky, and comical add-ons available for drones. But the more Red Balloon CEO Ang Cui thought about it, the more unsettled he and his colleagues became about how cheap and easy it would be for anyone to buy seemingly disparate add-ons that could easily turn a mainstream quadcopter into a war machine. The accessories the researchers found include AI drone guidance modules—essentially small mounted cameras that use object recognition to identify humans and road vehicles at long range—and miles-long fiber optic tethers. Like plugging an ethernet cable directly into your laptop, miles-long tethers allow drones to fly around a large area without being vulnerable to disruption by signal jammers. The researchers recognized them from battlefield footage and other reports that such tethers—not to mention AI guidance modules—are being used by both sides in the Russia-Ukraine war to drop explosives or autopilot crash entire drones themselves into tracked objects without requiring operator control. The fact that battlefield technology is widely available in the United States and around the world at low cost augurs a climate in which any actor—from criminal syndicates to paramilitary groups, from disgruntled employees to ostracized teens—can quickly and cheaply gather the needed equipment to remotely go on a destructive and violent rampage.

I recently began a non-resident fellowship with the Atlantic Council's Forward Defense program. My first contribution is this new blog post at The New Atlanticist, about long-range strikes with DIY drones in Ukraine and Russia and the implications for the future of warfare. The drone technology for covert actors to cheaply penetrate deep behind enemy lines, avoid electronic and kinetic defenses, and precisely strike military targets has existed since roughly 2012. However, integrating and operationalizing the technology has traditionally required climbing a steep learning curve. The Ukrainians are rapidly climbing this learning curve, which will lower the barrier to entry for other actors in the future.

Excited to share my latest Center for a New American Security (CNAS) report: Evolution Not Revolution: Drone Warfare in Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine. This report examines the evolving role of drones in the war in Ukraine. It concludes that drones have indeed transformed the battlefield by providing accessible and affordable capabilities at a scale that did not previously exist. Drones are making it difficult to concentrate forces, achieve surprise, and conduct offensive operations. While drones are not more survivable than crewed aircraft, they enable greater risk acceptance. Moreover, drones do not have to be survivable if they are cheap and plentiful, as they can attain resiliency by reconstitution.    Nevertheless, the overall impact of drones has been more evolutionary than revolutionary. Drones connected to ground-based fires units have made common artillery shells precision weapons. First-person view kamikaze drones can accurately hit mobile targets, making the frontlines even more lethal. But even large numbers of small drones cannot match the potency of artillery fire and thus cannot serve as substitutes for howitzers. Also, while drones provide affordable airpower, they have not replaced traditional air forces nor been able to obtain air superiority.    Some additional key findings of the report include:   -Ukraine has consistently out-innovated Russia with commercial technologies and software, but Russian forces have quickly adapted and emulated Ukrainian successes.   -Volunteer networks have performed an unprecedented role in acquiring, modifying, and building commercial and DIY drones for both Ukrainian and Russian troops.  -Russia has an edge in military drones, which enable its forces to see and strike farther behind the front lines, while Ukrainian forces have gaps in this area.   -In the Ukraine war, drones have operated in stacks rather than swarms.  -Russian and Ukrainian forces are using long-range kamikaze drones for deep strategic strikes.  -Both Russia and Ukraine are experimenting with counter-drone capabilities, but Russia has long invested in electronic warfare, which remains the most effective counter. This is the first of two new reports on drones and the future of warfare. The second authored by Hannah Dennis, Molly Campbell, and I will come out this spring, and includes a comparative analysis of three wars involving drones, including Ukraine, the Libyan Civil War, and Nagorno-Karabakh. The forthcoming report will also consider how drones could be used in a potential war against China in the Indo-Pacific.    https://lnkd.in/d2zKrJ_E

Rus state media is normalizing DIY heavy drone development by frontline units by running a story on soldiers assembling "Zvezda" (Star) octocopter (6kg cargo) and "Solntse" (Sun) 16-propeller (10kg cargo) cargo/supply drones: "We use spare parts that are in the thousands lying around unused at the front and in the rear. The (drone) costs are minimal... We don't rely on supplies; we always have everything we need on hand. Moreover, a skilled operator can repair almost any damage on the spot. The main sources for cargo UAVs are regular small FPVs, both domestic and Ukrainian. Their duralumin and carbon fiber arms are removed and scaled up to the required dimensions using welding or bolts. The finished frame is then fitted with a flight controller, motor, and video camera, and the propellers, ejection mechanism, and landing gear are attached. An eight-propeller copter is fitted with two batteries, while a 16-propeller copter is fitted with four. The UAVs' purpose isn't limited to cargo delivery. They can also act as repeaters and radio signal amplifiers. They can also remotely drop shells and mines, to carry the heavy TM-62 mines." State media admission that there are not enough heavy drones at the front: "Zvezda" and "Solntse" are examples of grassroots initiatives that were (supported) - there's a need for many cargo copters on the front lines." https://lnkd.in/eErY6s92

Commercial drones are revolutionizing modern warfare, and it's not just about military power anymore. A $1000 commercial drone can now defeat a $4M tank. Here's what this means for the future of technology: The democratization of military tech in Ukraine has shattered conventional wisdom about warfare and innovation. What used to require billions in military spending can now be achieved with commercial technology. The game-changing shift comes from 5 key developments: • FPV drones delivering precision strikes at 1/1000th the cost • Drone-vs-drone combat creating new aerial warfare doctrine • Commercial drones neutralizing advanced armor & aircraft • AI integration enabling autonomous drone swarms • Small forces effectively challenging major military powers The most fascinating part? These aren't military-grade systems. They're commercial drones, often built with off-the-shelf components. This represents a fundamental shift in how we think about technological advancement. The traditional equation of "bigger budget = better capability" is breaking down. Ukraine's "Kropyva" system proves this point perfectly: • Uses commercial drones • Integrates with AI for targeting • Achieves military-grade precision • Costs a fraction of traditional systems As someone who's spent years researching AI and robotics, I'm seeing a clear pattern: Technology is becoming democratized at an unprecedented rate. The implications extend far beyond military applications: • Innovation speed matters more than budget size • Commercial tech is catching up to specialized systems • Accessibility drives advancement more than exclusivity • Small teams can now compete with major institutions The real opportunity isn't in building more expensive systems. It's in making advanced technology accessible to everyone who wants to innovate. This is why at @ScaledFoundations, we're focused on democratizing robotics and AI technology. Because the future belongs to those who can innovate quickly, not those who spend the most. ↓ Follow me @akapoor_av8r for more insights on AI, robotics, and the democratization of technology. Sources: https://lnkd.in/g4DWysd5 https://lnkd.in/g2yq4rzh

Today marks four years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine – a period among the most transformative in the history of modern warfare. In February 2022, most analysts expected tanks, artillery, and massed formations to define the conflict. Instead, we witnessed the rapid rise of low-cost weaponized drones reshape the battlefield in real time. What began as ad hoc quadcopters deploying grenades has evolved into industrial-scale drone warfare. FPV strike drones have given way to autonomous navigation and swarms, and even lower-tech adaptations like fiber-optics to circumvent jamming. Real-time ISR feeds are piped directly into targeting loops, while software updates are pushed mid-conflict. Engineers and operators iterate together in days, not years. The impact on the battlefield is undeniable. Russia and Ukraine now deploy tens of thousands of drones per month. Drone coverage shapes defensive lines. Dispersion is mandatory. Maneuver is constrained by what can be seen and struck from above. And grouped armor or aircraft without comprehensive air defense is a glaring liability. The lesson from the Ukraine-Russia conflict is bigger than just drones: it’s about how the pace of adaptation now defines the pace of victory. The side that iterates fastest survives, even in the face of overwhelming odds. This is a preview of what’s to come. Future conflicts, especially those between near-peer adversaries, will not allow for a transition period. When kill chains are compressed to seconds and unmanned systems are fielded, defeated, redesigned and redeployed within days, years-long acquisition cycles designed to refine the “perfect” weapon are already too slow. If the United States and its allies want to win the innovation race ahead of the next big war, we cannot wait until we are locked in a firefight to discover what works. We need: - Continuous experimentation at the speed of conflict - Clear, coherent demand signals to industry - Acquisition pathways built for iteration - Open and interoperable systems built for seamless integrations Four years ago, drones were a disruptive tool. Today, they are foundational to how wars are fought. And while Ukraine built a wartime R&D pipeline out of necessity, we need to build ours out of foresight – before it’s too late.

The evolution of modern conflicts is evident in the shift towards individualized manufacturing capabilities, marking a departure from traditional large-scale industrial complexes. From the military industrial complex and Industrial Revolution's era of mass production to today's tech-savvy battlegrounds, where innovation thrives within the confines of homes and garages. The emergence of the drone revolution exemplifies this paradigm shift, notably showcased in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. This dynamic has not only reshaped the battlefield landscape but also revolutionized the way revolutionary technologies are conceived and executed. Unlike the conventional approach of industry giants, everyday individuals are now pioneering advancements from their domestic spaces at a fraction of the time and cost. The ability for a small group of individuals to swiftly produce numerous drones within a household, outpacing established entities, underscores the transformative power of modern warfare dynamics. This trend underscores the growing momentum towards privatization in equipping modern-day warfighters, emphasizing efficiency, affordability, and direct deployment strategies. In this era of rapid technological advancement and decentralized innovation, the narrative of conflict resolution is being rewritten by the ingenuity of individuals, propelling us towards a future where agility and resourcefulness define the battlefield landscape.

Due to Russia’s overwhelming numerical superiority in men and materiel, Ukraine had no choice but to fully adopt drone warfare in what was, initially at least, an asymmetric approach.   As weaponised drones have revolutionized the nature of warfare, microcontrollers are playing a bigger and bigger role in drone-delivered devices.   This particular device, as simple as it looks, demonstrates how easy microcontrollers have made it to produce what we would have called a sophisticated device only a few years ago. It uses a radiator coolant hose from a car engine as its container. This is then filled with plastic explosives (PVV-5A), an electric detonator is inserted and its power supply is a small battery.  The key to this device is the microcontroller, which is used as the initiator.   Once again, this is a Verba microcontroller, which has appeared so often recently that it is highly-likely to be manufactured in Ukraine. This particular device uses a magnetic sensor, which is triggered by the approach of ferrous metal, such as a vehicle. The microcontroller incorporates a 10-minute arming delay (to prevent any problems on launch) and a 60-day self-destruct delay.   These devices are then dropped beside roads and tracks behind Russian lines.   https://lnkd.in/gx8rPdvA   #ukrainewar #osint #EOD