Investment Considerations

Africa’s biggest creative exit began with one phone call. In 2017, legendary Nigerian music producer Don Jazzy had a successful record label. But he knew something was missing. While Afrobeats was exploding globally, African labels were still operating like it was 2005 - no data analytics, no proper structure, no international distribution deals. Then came an unexpected call from Kupanda Capital, not your regular investor but a business-building platform focused on emerging markets. 🎯 Kupanda told Don Jazzy: "We see Afrobeats going global. Let's rebuild Mavin Records from the ground up to capture that opportunity." What happened next became the blueprint for scaling African creative businesses internationally. The transformation was radical: Kupanda moved two senior executives to Lagos to work alongside Don Jazzy's team (poke Mavin COO Peter Tega Oghenejobo). Together, they didn't just add capital - they rebuilt everything: 🎤 An artist development academy: Training talent for the digital age 📊 Data-driven A&R: Using analytics to predict hits before they happen 🌍 A global distribution network: International contracts from day one 🏢 A proper corporate structure: a 70-person team with defined roles and responsibilities Only THEN did Kupanda bring in TPG to invest $10M+ in Mavin. Then came the proof of concept... 🚀 Rema's "Calm Down" (featuring Selena Gomez) became the first song by an African artist to hit 1 billion Spotify streams. The numbers tell the rest of the story: - 60x growth in overall revenue over 5 years  - 100x growth in digital revenue 🔥 In 2024, Universal Music Group acquired a majority stake in Mavin at a $150-200M valuation, in the largest deal in African Creative Industries history. When I said that Mavin’s success had become the blueprint for scaling creative ventures in Africa, this is why: 1️⃣ Partnership beats pure capital. Creative companies often need a lot more than just cash. Operational expertise + local creative knowledge = magic 2️⃣ Structure unlocks creativity. You can’t grow on shaky foundations. Proper systems amplify business AND artistic potential. 3️⃣ Bet on data not gut feelings. Creative companies are yet to fully adopt digital tools, and that’s stifling their growth. Mavin shows how analytics can enable global success. Few investors are ready to be as hands-on as Kupanda, and few founders can be as collaborative as Don Jazzy and his team. EVEN THOUGH WE KNOW IT WORKS. Think about that. Mavin Records is one of the 12 African companies profiled in my latest study for Proparco's CREA Fund. Read the full case study here: https://lnkd.in/diAwWrXe ------ Want more business insights on the African Creative and Sports space? Join the 9,500+ other professionals who subscribe to my monthly newsletter HUSTLE & FLOW: https://lnkd.in/drBY8jnz

Introducing the Music Tech Ownership Ouroboros, 2025 edition ✨ The music-tech sector has come of age. What started as a relatively niche investment thesis five years ago has matured into a powerhouse market segment, drawing tens of billions in capital since 2020. For five years, we at Water & Music have been mapping these shifting power dynamics through our “Music Tech Ownership Ouroboros” — a living document that traces the complex web of investments, ownership stakes, and strategic acquisitions shaping music and tech. Our latest update adds over 30 new relationships to the map, primarily from growth investments and M&A deals in 2024. The takeaway: Private equity firms and major labels are locked in a battle for control over independent music infrastructure. As indie market share keeps climbing, owning the tech backbone is becoming as valuable as owning the actual rights. Highlights from 2024 include: - Hellman & Friedman's majority stake in Global Music Rights — making GMR the third PRO owned by a private equity firm - Virgin Music Group's acquisitions of Downtown Music ($775M), [PIAS], and Outdustry - Flexpoint Ford's growth investments in Create Music Group ($165M) and Duetti ($34M) - KKR's acquisition of Superstruct Entertainment ($1.4B) and debt financing in HarbourView Equity Partners ($500M) - EQT Group and TCV's co-ownership of Believe (alongside CEO Denis Ladegaillerie), as part of taking Believe private - Vinyl Group's acquisitions of Serenade, Mediaweek Australia, Funkified Events, and Concrete Playground Link to the full interactive chart with sources is in the comments. Would love to hear what you think, and if any of these deals feel particularly standout or surprising to you! #musicbusiness #musicindustry #musictech #privateequity #musicinvestment #musicrights

Pre-seed and seed founders: don't ignore small checks. In 2024, 34% of the checks into startups raising on SAFEs were for $25K or less. Data below is for US companies on Carta that are raising their initial set of capital. All on post-money SAFEs, all before any priced rounds. Let's be honest - yes, those big checks anchor the round and matter a lot! No question. But there are many reasons why accepting small checks into your SAFE round may be beneficial. 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝘀 (𝗮𝗸𝗮 𝗕𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗳 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹) • Often your very first believers, willing to commit to the vision before any institutional investors. • Can kickstart the round, providing momentum to show vital proof to the larger checks down the road. • Value of the network / effort > just cash. Angels often make introductions that snowball into future funding. • For bigger round, small checks can strategically fill investor gaps (maybe you convert a GTM advisor into a strategic angel, for instance). Fundamentally believe that startups are better for everyone when small ticket investors have an opportunity to participate - cool to see that many founders agree based on the data 🙏 #startups #founders #preseed #SAFEs #fundraising Lots more on the current market for SAFE rounds in our State of Pre-Seed Report, read for free at the link in graphic!

𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘀 𝗵𝗼𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻 - 𝗶𝘁’𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱. Mining has long sat in the background of capital markets. Often lumped in with the broader commodity markets and seen as slow, capital-intensive, and lacking technological progression. Important, but not investable. Strategic, but stagnant. Well, that narrative is breaking. Critical minerals, while always seen as national security assets, have ascended to a top national priority. Electrification, AI infrastructure, and defense supply chains are all colliding with a system that historically took 10+ years to deliver a new mine - if delivered at all. Meanwhile, discovery rates are collapsing while permitting timelines are stretching, further compounding capital risk. Due to this growing demand gap and market tailwinds, we spent the last few months mapping where the real bottlenecks and areas of venture-scale opportunity across the mining value chain sit, touching on: ⛏️ Exploration and feasibility - the binding constraints 🤖 Use of AI - sensing are collapsing the drill → data → decision loop ⏱️ Time-to-value matters - often more than technical novelty 💰 Moving multiples - how tech can move assets from “mining multiples” to “growth industrial” outcomes 📊 Business model innovation - why royalty-like, equity-linked models may matter as much as the tech itself The result is a framework for evaluating mining-tech opportunities via capital intensity vs. time-to-value, with a focus on cycle-time compression, risk reduction, and scalable value capture. And the best part? This isn’t just theory, we’re already seeing signals in OEM offtake behavior, upstream verticalization, and a new generation of founders treating mining as a potentially data-rich industry ripe for transformation. If you’re building, investing in, or navigating mining, minerals, or industrial AI — give it a read and let’s compare notes! As they say these days, the [VCs] yearn for the mines ⛏️ [Link to full piece in comments, also drop a comment if you want the spreadsheet backup to the market map] CC: Cathay Innovation, Simon Wu, Elijah Yi, Rose Yuan, Jaclyn Hartnett, Daniela Caserotto Leibert #Mining #CriticalMinerals #IndustrialTech #AI #EnergyTransition #VentureCapital #Reindustrialization

Let’s Dance: Private Equity plays a major part in the music ecosystem paying 15-25x annual cash flow for royalties. Since 2020, several billion dollars have been invested in music royalities led by the largest PE sponsors in the world, including Blackstone, Apollo Global Management, Inc., KKR, & The Carlyle Group. Francisco Partners the brilliant technology-software focused PE firm, led by Dipanjan Deb purchased a controlling stake in the best PE music specialty asset manager, Kobalt Music. Kobalt recently sold a catalogue comprised of Weeknd, Lorde and others for $1.1 billion to a KKR-led team, with another sponsor selling its music royalties (Shakira & Nelly) for $465 million. The music business has always been big business, but the original creative mind who revolutionized the monetization of music rights was Mr. Space Oddity himself, David Bowie. Bowie Bonds were the first music-backed bond sold in the capital markets, allowing the artist to receive a windfall in the 1990’s when Moody’s, S&P and Fitch rated his music-backed bonds. The bonds matured 10-years after issuance, and the rights to the income reverted to David Bowie. Thanks to the demise of Napster, and the business models of Spotify and Apple Music, top recording artists receive payment for every song played. Music royalties are classified as Master or Composition, whereby the Master is the IP or rights to reproduce or distribute the sound recording that belongs to the recording artist or record label; whereas the Composition represents the rights based on the lyrics, harmonies, or melodies of the song that belongs to the songwriter or publisher. As Prince famously said in a Rolling Stones article “if you don’t own your own masters, the master owns you”. Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour has topped $4 Billion, the most profitable in history, which comes after her legal battle with a promoter who purchased her music rights from her producer. Given the steady cashflows for royalties, financing is based on an LTV attachment point and DSCR. Financing costs have soared over the past two years, so returns are now upside down for some of the PE sponsors, with creditors earning more interest income than the royalty stream earned by equity, a condition that is not particularly favorable at this current juncture. This explains why there has been very few transactions in 2023 given costly financing. During the past two years, as interest rates have risen, the price paid for music royalty cash flow streams has fallen nearly 20%. For instance, if a buyer were to pay 20x cash flow expecting to earn a 5% return (unleveraged), and the newly adjusted multiple subsequently traded at 16x, then the value would decline by ~20% as the new buyer requires ~100bp higher yield. A publicly listed UK listed music royalty company trades at a discount to its NAV as its share price has declined 50% from 2021.

Greenland is not about territory. It is about Arctic access — security footprint, critical-minerals optionality, and how alliance politics now show up inside capital allocation. Three takeaways matter for business leaders and investors. First, this is about Arctic operating advantage, not sovereignty. The United States does not need to own Greenland to secure what it wants. The objective is forward positioning: missile warning, space surveillance, Arctic air and naval reach, and logistics corridors between North America and Europe. Formal ownership would be politically explosive and unnecessary. What matters is privileged access to infrastructure, ports, airspace, and basing rights. Second, critical minerals are leverage, not near-term production. Greenland’s mineral potential matters less for immediate extraction than for strategic optionality. In a world where China dominates rare-earth processing, even the possibility of alternative supply strengthens negotiating power and investment planning. This is about supply-chain bargaining power over the next decade, not mines coming online tomorrow. Third, this is a signal to allies as much as to rivals. The episode reminds us that security guarantees now come with expectations of alignment. For Europe, it has already triggered a rethink on energy and dependency risk. For smaller partners, it reinforces a new reality: access to U.S. security architecture increasingly travels alongside expectations on infrastructure, resources, and strategic cooperation. So what does this translate into for boardrooms? This is already landing in investment committees from Singapore to London, from New York City to Tokyo, and increasingly in Frankfurt and Abu Dhabi — wherever CEOs, CIOs, and investment committees are making long-duration bets under geopolitical constraint. Concretely, that means: Defense and Arctic-adjacent infrastructure: ports, radar, space monitoring, cold-region logistics Critical-minerals exposure: early positioning via partnerships and offtake, not headline acquisitions Supply-chain redesign: routing, redundancy, inventory strategy for northern corridors Risk pricing: insurance, shipping, and sovereign-interface risk moving into project IRRs Greenland is where this shift becomes visible: in defence contracts and port upgrades, mineral off-take and shipping routes — as supply chains are rerouted and investment committees price Arctic access, logistics resilience, and resource security into real projects. Policymakers will draw lessons too. But the first-order moves are already being made by business leaders and investors allocating capital across a more fragmented operating environment. #Geopolitics #Arctic #CriticalMinerals #Infrastructure #Defense #Investing #SupplyChains #EnergySecurity #GlobalRisk

🚨 Fast-Tracked Mining Projects: A New Era for U.S. Critical Minerals 🇺🇸⛏️ The federal government has officially designated several high-priority mining projects for FAST-41 permitting, streamlining the path for vital resource development. These projects span the country—and the periodic table—targeting materials essential for everything from EV batteries and fertilizer to semiconductors and defense systems. 🗺️ I made a visual map of these projects (see graphic!) to help illustrate just how widespread and strategically important they are. Highlights include: Stibnite, ID – Antimony & gold McDermitt, OR – Lithium Southwest AR – Brine-based lithium Silver Peak, NV – Lithium expansion Blue Creek, AL – Metallurgical coal Caldwell Canyon, ID – Phosphate Michigan Potash, MI – Potash & salt Lisbon Valley, UT – Copper (in-situ) Libby, MT – Silver & copper Resolution Copper, AZ – One of the largest undeveloped copper resources in North America 🔗 FAST-41 doesn’t cut corners—it aligns agencies, creates timelines, and increases accountability. It’s about getting to “yes” or “no” faster, without compromising environmental standards. 📉 Why it matters: The U.S. is still heavily import-reliant for many of these materials. These projects represent a critical step toward supply chain security, energy independence, and economic resilience. 🎙️ We dove into these projects in our latest episode of Mine EX-Plorers, breaking down what they mean for the mining industry, national security, and the future of American resource development: https://lnkd.in/g6HjB22M #Mining #CriticalMinerals #FAST41 #MineralPolicy #MineEXPlorers #EnergyTransition #Lithium #Copper #Antimony #Potash #PermittingReform #MadeInAmerica

Most investment failures do not stem from weak analysis or insufficient capital. They occur when leadership misreads momentum. Decisions are made when pressure has already peaked, rather than when the first strategic signals appear. Certainty is pursued for too long, and by the time it arrives, the opportunity to create real impact has passed. Investment has a clear pulse. It strengthens when direction, readiness, and conviction align. It weakens when hesitation delays commitment. Leaders who can read this pulse do not stop at asking how much to invest, but focus on when conviction must translate into a decision that moves the organization. In many organizations, activity is mistaken for readiness. Analysis is thorough, approvals are layered, and discussions are well structured, yet momentum quietly dissipates. When a decision finally feels safe, its strategic value has already eroded. What remains is movement without leverage. The real advantage is not capital. It is timing guided by clarity and leadership discipline. The pulse of investment is not found in market noise, but in the ability to decide at the right moment.

Impact investing in emerging markets is full of opportunity—but most investors get it wrong. They assume capital alone will drive scale. They mistake mission for a business model. They expect VC-style hypergrowth in markets that don’t operate on those timelines. The result? Billions lost in misaligned investments. But the best investors? They take a different approach. 3 Investment Strategies That Win 1️⃣ Founder-First Capital Investment success isn’t about finding the right idea—it’s about backing the right operator. Markets shift, conditions change, and execution is everything. 📊 80% of successful impact investments prioritize founder resilience over just business models. (GIIN Report) 2️⃣ Scalability-Driven Investing An impact-driven business without a clear path to scale is just a local initiative with a short shelf life. The best investors fund businesses that can expand beyond their first market—or they don’t fund them at all. 3️⃣ Ecosystem Investing Capital alone doesn’t build industries. The best investors engineer access—to supply chains, regulatory inroads, talent pipelines, and strategic partnerships. The highest returns don’t come from funding companies—they come from shaping industries. 2 Strategies That Fail ❌ Mission-First, Revenue-Later Investing A great mission doesn’t pay salaries, fuel expansion, or create resilience. If impact isn’t tied to a scalable revenue model, it’s not an investment—it’s a grant in disguise. 📊 Over 60% of impact startups that fail cite a lack of sustainable revenue as the primary reason. (Stanford Social Innovation Review) ❌ Short-Term, High-Expectation Investing Emerging markets don’t operate on a Silicon Valley timeline. Investors expecting hypergrowth without accounting for market complexities end up making premature exits or forcing founders into unsustainable scaling. Key Takeaway here: The difference between real impact and wasted capital isn’t just the business model—it’s the investment strategy behind it. 📌 What’s the biggest mistake you see in emerging markets? Let’s discuss. ♻️ Share this with someone who deserves to hear it.  👉 Follow Ben Botes for more insights on Leadership, Scale-ups and Impact Investment.

Happy to finally share BloombergNEF US Data Center Outlook. This report combines our AI data center primer and US forecast into one incredible deep dive. We left no server rack unchecked – from AI training model demands to project construction timelines – this outlook covers it all. Key Findings: ⚡ BNEF projects US data-center power demand will more than double by 2035, rising from 34.7GW today to 78.2GW. Meanwhile, energy consumption could nearly triple, with average hourly electricity demand jumping from 16.2GWh to 49.1GWh. PJM is expected to remain the biggest by 2035 –followed by Ercot and then the Southeast. ⚡ BNEF’s relatively conservative forecast isn’t downplaying AI – it simply factors in real-world constraints like interconnection delays and build timelines. In the US, a data center takes seven years to reach full operation. For interconnections alone, developers face waits of 2–3 years in Chicago or 7–11 years in parts of Virginia and Texas. ⚡ Four companies – Amazon Web Services (AWS), Google, Meta and Microsoft – currently control 43% of US data-center capacity in 2024, wielding substantial influence over energy infrastructure planning and investment. ⚡ Data-center location decisions hinge many things like power cost, clean power, workforce availability, and tax incentives. But in the age of AI, speed-to-market and scalability top the list. Some developers co-locate near power plants or stranded renewables; others use remote campuses with bridging technologies to accommodate massive AI workloads. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gAcgP9it Special thanks to Nathalie Limandibhratha (our lead author), along with Tom Rowlands-Rees, Jennifer W., Ben Vickers, and Ashish Sethia, for the many hours and dedication that made this note possible. And to our global counterparts – Jinghong Lyu, Ian Berryman, and David Hostert – it has been a pleasure to hack this data center topic together. What's in the report? ▪️ Section 1: Key findings on growth, AI’s role and hyperscaler influence. ▪️ Section 2: Basics of data-center types, components and efficiency metrics. ▪️ Section 3: How AI training drives massive power needs, cost and design shifts. ▪️ Section 4: Factors influencing where data centers are built. ▪️ Section 5: Regional analysis of major and emerging US data-center markets. ▪️ Section 6: BNEF’s demand and capacity outlook through 2035. Looking to dive deeper into the data?
 The downloadable Excel (included with this report) features: ▪️ All charts & underlying data from the study ▪️ US-wide, project-level data covering every operating data center (April 2025) ▪️ County-level data on pipeline capacity for data centers (April 2025)