Workplace Trends Overview

A Return To Office mandate is a funny thing. A trade-off of lower workforce productivity, morale, retention, engagement, and trust in exchange for...managers feeling more in control. It's more a sign of insecurity and incompetence than sound decision-making. The fact that 80% of executives who have pushed for RTO mandates have later regretted their decision only makes the point further, and yet every few months more leaders line up to pad this statistic. In case your leaders have forgotten, return to office mandates are associated with: 🔻 16% lower intent to stay among the highest-performing employees (Gartner) 🔻 10% less trust, psychological safety, and relationship quality between workers and their managers (Great Place to Work) 🔻 22% of employees from marginalized groups becoming more likely to search for new jobs (Greenhouse) 🔻 No significant change in financial performance while guaranteeing damage to employee satisfaction (Ding and Ma, 2024) The thing is, we KNOW how to do hybrid work well at this point. 🎯 Allow teams to decide on in-person expectations, and hold people accountable to it—high flexibility; high accountability. 🎯 Make in-person time unique and valuable, with brainstorming, events, and culture-building activities—not video calls all day in the office. 🎯 Value outcomes, not appearances, of productivity—reward those who get their work done regardless of where they do it. 🎯 Train inclusive managers, not micromanagers—build in them the skills and confidence to lead with trust rather than fear and insecurity. Leaders that fly in the face of all this data to insist that workers return to office "OR ELSE" communicate one thing: they are the kinds of leaders that place their own egos and comfort above their shareholders and employees alike. Faced with the very real test of how to design the hybrid workforce of the future, these leaders chose to throw a tantrum in their bid to return to the past, and their organizations will suffer for it. The leaders that will thrive in this time? Those that are willing to do the work. Those that are willing to listen to their workforce, skill up to meet new needs, and claim their rewards in the form of the best talent, higher productivity, and the highest level of worker loyalty and trust. Will that be you?

You're a #CTO. Your board asks: "What's our ROI on AI coding tools?" Your answer: "40% of our code is AI-generated!" They respond: "So what? Are we shipping faster? Are customers happier?" Most CTOs are measuring AI impact completely wrong. Here's what some are tracking: - Percentage of AI-generated code - Developer hours saved per week - Lines of code produced - AI tool adoption rates These metrics are like measuring how fast your assembly line workers attach parts while ignoring whether your cars actually start. Here's what you SHOULD measure instead: 1. Delivered business value 2. Customer cycle time 3. Development throughput 4. Quality and reliability 5. Total cost of delivery (not just development) 6. Team satisfaction Software development isn't a typing competition—it's a complex system. If AI makes your developers 30% faster but your deployment takes 2 weeks and QA adds another week, your customer delivery improves by maybe 7%. You've speed up the wrong part. The solution: A/B test your teams. Give half your teams AI tools, measure business outcomes over 2-3 release cycles. Track what customers actually experience, not how much developers produce. Companies that measure business impact from AI will pull ahead. Those measuring vanity metrics will wonder why their expensive tools aren't moving the needle. Stop measuring how much code AI generates. Start measuring how much faster you deliver value to customers. What are you actually measuring? And is it moving your business forward? -> Follow me for more about building great tech organizations at scale. More insights in my book "All Hands on Tech"

Last week, I talked about the possibilities of AI to make work easier. This week, I want to share a clear example of how we are doing that at HubSpot. We’re focused on helping our customers grow. So naturally, we take customer support seriously. Whether it’s a product question or a business challenge, we want inquiries to be answered efficiently and thoughtfully. We knew AI could help, but we didn’t know quite what it would look like! We first deployed AI in website and support chat. To mitigate any growing pains, we had a customer rep standing by for questions that came through who could quickly take the baton if things went sideways. And, sometimes they did. But we didn’t panic. We listened, we improved, and we kept testing. The more data AI collects, the better it gets. Today, 83% of the chat on HubSpot’s website is AI-managed and our Chatbot is digitally resolving about 30% of incoming tickets. That’s an enormous gain in productivity! Our customer reps have more time to focus on complex, high touch questions. AI also helps us quickly identify trends—questions or issues that are being raised more frequently—so we can intervene early. In other words, AI has not just transformed our customer support. It has elevated it. So, here is what we learned: Don’t panic if customer experience gets worse initially! It will improve as your data evolves. Evolve your KPIs and how you measure success- if AI resolves typical questions and your team resolves tricky ones, they will need more time. Use AI to elevate your team's efforts How are you using AI in support? What are you learning? 

#PeopleAnalytics: Turning #HRMetrics into #Strategic Insights In today’s data-driven organizations, HR is evolving from a support function to a strategic powerhouse. These HR Metrics are more than just numbers; they’re lenses through which we can understand workforce dynamics, organizational health, and business impact. Let’s break it down: 🔹 Absenteeism Rate: A high rate may signal burnout, disengagement, or systemic issues in workplace culture. Tracking it helps identify patterns and intervene early. 🔹 Employee Attrition & Retention: These twin metrics reveal the stability of your workforce. High attrition can be costly and disruptive, while strong retention often reflects good leadership and employee satisfaction. 🔹 Internal Promotion Rate: A key indicator of talent mobility and succession planning. Promoting from within boosts morale and reduces hiring costs. 🔹 Cost Per Hire & Time to Hire: Efficiency metrics that reflect the effectiveness of your recruitment strategy. Long hiring cycles or high costs may point to process inefficiencies or misaligned sourcing channels. 🔹 Offer Acceptance Rate: A direct measure of your employer brand and candidate experience. Low acceptance rates might mean your value proposition isn’t resonating. 🔹 Human Capital ROI: This is the ultimate business case for HR—how much return you’re getting from your investment in people. It’s a powerful metric for aligning HR with financial performance. 🔹 Employee Engagement: Often measured through surveys, this metric captures how emotionally and cognitively invested employees are in their work. High engagement is correlated with productivity, innovation, and employee retention. 💡 Why it matters: These formulas empower HR teams to move from reactive to proactive. They help diagnose problems, forecast trends, and make evidence-based decisions that drive business value. People analytics isn’t just about tracking—it’s about transforming. #PeopleAnalytics #HRStrategy #HumanCapital #WorkforceInsights #EmployeeExperience #DataDrivenHR #Leadership #FutureOfWork #LinkedInHR #HRLeadership

Moody‘s expecting massive losses for US office properties 🙄 Bloomberg reports on the latest gloomy forecast for a battered sector: "Office-vacancy rates are expected to rise to 24% from 19.8% in 1Q2024 in 🇺🇸, reducing revenue for office landlords by between $8 billion and $10 billion when combined with the impact of lower rents and lease turnovers, the authors of the report said. That, in turn, could translate into 'property value destruction' in the range of $2️⃣5️⃣0️⃣ billion, according to Todd Metcalfe, Moody's associate director of commercial real estate (CRE) forecasting, and Thomas LaSalvia PhD, Moody’s head of CRE economics. The figures illustrate the gloomy prospects faced by property owners and lenders as employers continue to jettison square footage or shift from multi-year leases to shorter-term and more flexible co-working arrangements. A full 8️⃣5️⃣% of North American organizations polled by brokerage JLL have implemented hybrid work, and occupancy across offices in major US cities is stuck at about 5️⃣0️⃣% of pre-pandemic levels. Wavering demand and increased borrowing costs have slammed office valuations, especially among older buildings. 'The argument for maintaining or even increasing remote work practices remains compelling for many businesses,' the Moody’s authors said. 'If productivity remains stable and costs can be reduced by forgoing physical office spaces, the rationale for mandating in-office attendance diminishes.' Moody’s analysis focused on white-collar sectors that have highest work-from-home rates and also account for the lion’s 🦁 share of office property in the US, such as the finance, information, real estate and administrative sectors. It controlled for those who worked from home before the pandemic, and accounted for the ongoing decline in office space allotted per worker, which began after the 2008 financial crisis and has accelerated since then. 💡 Using multiple sets of government and academic data including the Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, Moody’s determined that office workers today need about 1️⃣4️⃣% less office space than they did before the pandemic. The figure corresponds to research from the McKinsey Global Institute, which concluded that there will be 1️⃣3️⃣% less demand for office space in a typical city globally by 2030. McKinsey & Company also found that office-property values will decline by anywhere between $800 billion and $1.3 trillion over that time period. Eventually, the Moody’s authors said, vacancy rates will plateau as enough offices are torn down or converted to other uses like warehouses or residential property. 'Right-sizing will continue over the next decade as the market shakes out less efficient space for flexible floorplans that support our relatively new working habits,' the report said." (+++Opinions are my own. Not investment advice. Do your own research.+++) Tap the bell 🔔 to subscribe to my profile & you'll be notified when I post. 💸

A long-running labor supply tailwind may have ended. For more than two decades, one of the most reliable trends in the U.S. labor market was the steady rise in labor force participation among older Americans. But something has changed. Both series have flattened in recent years. And for the 70+ group, participation has actually drifted down since COVID. The “Americans are working longer and longer” story was true for a generation. It looks much less true now. Why? My best guess is the wealth effect. Home values and equity portfolios have surged over the past decade, and older Americans are disproportionately asset-rich. When your net worth rises sharply, the incentive to remain in the workforce at 68 or 73 weakens. COVID may have accelerated that shift, nudging some financially comfortable older workers from “I could retire” to “I am retired.” This deserves more attention. The long rise in older-worker participation was an important tailwind for labor supply. If that tailwind is over, it matters for labor shortages, fiscal projections, and how we think about the workforce in the next decade. #laborforceparticipation #retirement #labormarkets #recruitment #careers

The future of work isn’t coming—it’s here. Last week, at Transform one thing was clear: the workplace is evolving faster than most organizations can keep up. And those who aren’t adapting? They’re already behind. A few key themes stuck with me: 1️⃣ Trust is the new currency of leadership. Employees aren’t just looking for a paycheck—they’re looking for transparency, psychological safety, and leaders who show up with empathy. Trust isn’t built in all-hands meetings or company memos. It’s built (or broken) in the everyday moments. How leaders handle tough conversations, respond to challenges, and make decisions matters more than ever. As Brian Elliott, of Work Forward shared, saying “I don’t know” builds trust. 💡 2️⃣ HR is a business driver, not a back-office function. For years, HR fought for a seat at the table. Now, they have the keys—because culture, retention, and leadership development are business issues. But here’s the challenge: many HR leaders are still figuring out how to shift from operational executors to strategic advisors. Those who master this will define the next era of work. 3️⃣ AI isn’t replacing leaders—but it’s exposing them. AI is streamlining work and automating tasks, but it can’t build trust, inspire people, or navigate human dynamics. If anything, AI is putting a spotlight on leadership. Weak leaders will be exposed. Strong leaders will stand out. The real question isn’t “Will AI take my job?” but “How do I lead in a world where human skills are the differentiator?” 🦾 We all must be futurists. I keep coming back to something Ursula Burns, the former CEO of Xerox shared on stage—leaders can’t afford to wait for change, they have to prepare for it. That includes making tough talent decisions. Her advice? Don’t delay making key people decisions—but that doesn’t always mean letting someone go. So, I’ll ask you: What’s the biggest shift you’re seeing in your workplace right now? #Transform2024 #Leadership #FutureOfWork #HRLeadership

There's a looming retirement crisis that we're not talking enough about. By 2050, Japan will have 81 retirees for every 100 working-age people. South Korea? 79. Italy and Spain aren’t far behind. And in Australia, around one quarter of the population will be of retirement age. This isn’t just a demographic shift. It’s a workforce crisis in the making. 👵 Who’s going to fund these retirements? 👨💻 Where will the talent come from? 🏛️ What happens to GDP when your tax base shrinks? Here’s what this means for the future of work: 🔹 Delayed retirement will become the norm. Forget retiring at 65—many won’t be able to afford to. 🔹 Older workers will become essential. Organisations will need to redesign work around longevity. 🔹 Migration strategy becomes workforce strategy. Countries that can’t attract talent will fall behind. 🔹 AI will fill some of the gap, but not all of it. Automation may soften the blow, but it won’t replace human insight, creativity, and leadership. The time to rethink retirement, workforce planning, and age-inclusive policies isn’t 2050—it’s right now. — 📩 Want insights like this in your inbox? Subscribe to the ThinkerTank newsletter: https://lnkd.in/gXKmi7rX

A few weeks back, the CEO of Ford Motor Company shared that they have over 5,000 automotive technician jobs they cannot fill. Not because the jobs aren’t there. Because there aren’t enough people. And once you notice it, you see it everywhere. Yesterday, I was talking to a friend whose husband manages a fleet of snow plows. They currently have 18 trucks sitting idle. Not because it’s not snowing. Because they don’t have enough maintenance mechanics to fix them. My longtime plumber recently retired and closed his business. Completely. Why? His last plumber, a guy who’d been with him for 20 years, retired. He hasn’t had a single applicant in over five years. He couldn’t do all the work himself. So he shut the doors. Hospital beds sit empty. Not because there aren’t patients. Because there aren’t enough nurses, technicians, CNA's and maintenance people. Construction companies can’t find carpenters. A friend of mine owns a kitchen renovation business and pays his crew DOUBLE the industry average. Not because he wants to. Because he’s afraid of losing the people he already has. This isn’t a “people don’t want to work” issue. It’s a skills problem. A trade problem. A pipeline problem. We pushed an entire generation toward four-year degrees and quietly moved trades to the sidelines. Now we’re feeling it. The work is there. The demand is there. The pay is climbing. But the people aren’t. So I’m genuinely curious… If you’re having a hard time finding a job right now, would you consider learning a skilled or blue-collar trade? And if you have a kid getting ready for college, are you steering them toward a four-year degree… or actually talking about trades as a real option? Not as a fallback. Not as a plan B. As a smart, long-term path. Share your thoughts and if you've ever been personally impacted by this trend. #ResumeWriting #BlueCollarJobs #ShortagesEverywhere

I grew up in Atlanta, so this story hits close to home! The city is thriving, with a swelling population and strengthening job market. But even Atlanta's office market is getting hit hard. Why is that happening? (1) Hybrid work is on the rise. In our most recent Flex Index analysis, more than 75% of companies with employees in Atlanta offer hybrid or remote work options for corporate employees. (2) The commute in Atlanta is TERRIBLE. US cities with the worst commutes tend to have higher remote work rates. (3) As Atlanta has grown, the industry mix has shifted with professional services and financial services becoming bigger industries. These industries tend to have some of the highest hybrid work rates. (4) As hybrid work grows, companies with expiring leases are trading in for smaller office footprints. That leads to too much space on the sublease market and higher vacancy rates. Atlanta as a city will do great, but the office market will experience pain in the near to medium term. Great story by Peter Grant for The Wall Street Journal on how even the Sunbelt's biggest boomtowns aren't immune from a slumping office market. Leveraging data from Flex Index and People Data Labs. #futureofwork #flexibleworking