Trends in Sports Media Rights

Can the U.S. video ecosystem handle rising sports rights and will they squeeze out entertainment spend? Yes and yes. Recently, I published a piece (Video: Follow the Money) (https://bit.ly/4aQB9qA) that took a holistic look back at the U.S. video value chain. One of my key conclusions was that sports rights aren't in a "bubble," especially for premier sports. * In this follow up, I look forward, by forecasting the trajectory of sports rights through 2030 and the U.S. video ecosystem’s capacity to absorb those rising fees under base-, bear- and bull-case scenarios. * The transition from pay TV to streaming is deflationary, because pay TV monetizes dramatically higher than streaming per household (3X for subscription fees and 7X for advertising). The differences between the base, bear and bull cases largely hinge on the pace of this transition and the degree to which streamers can close the monetization gap (through price increases, crackdowns on password sharing, bundling and a near-universal push into advertising). * The scenarios show that even under the bear case, the video business has plenty of overhead to accommodate higher sports rights costs. * Under normal course, I project sports rights amortization will rise from about $24 billion in 2023 to about $40 billion in 2024. In the bear case, that means sports would represent more than 40% of total industry content spend by 2030, double the 20% it represented last year. * Should the bull case for the video business play out, sports rights would likely be even higher as some of this increased spending power would probably be allocated to sports (in the form of higher step ups, new packages and new leagues or sports). * Share of content spend will almost certainly shift to sports from entertainment under any scenario and, in the most pessimistic scenarios, will exert downward pressure on entertainment content budgets. In the base case, I calculate that entertainment content spend would decline at least 2% per year through 2030; in the bear case, it would decline 8%. * The ecosystem’s ability to accommodate higher sports spending is good news for the leagues, teams and players, but the growing relative importance of sports is another looming problem for an already-struggling Hollywood. https://bit.ly/4aMx1qU

⚽️📺 A lot of excitement on here about the #Bundesliga jumping into YouTube and creator-led distribution. And understandably so. When you add it to: 👉 French Rugby with EGGCHASERS RUGBY 👉 Saudi Pro League (SPL) with a French creator (who actually paid a rights fee, not just rev share) 👉 Brazil’s CazéTV and its live sports deals …it looks like a wave of leagues experimenting with new pathways to reach fans. But before we declare this the future of media rights 🚦, a few considerations worth keeping in mind: 🔑 Exposure vs. options - This will grow visibility and fan engagement - potentially bridging a small portion of the gap they face behind the EPL/EFL in UK popularity. But was this a proactive strategy, or simply the best option in a challenging market where other European leagues have struggled to secure meaningful rights deals? 📊 It’s not a free-for-all - Some liken this to a traditional rights deal. Others liken it to a FTA deal, or just a straight rev share on distribution. 🛠️ Behind the curtain - Youtube's team are working HARD - It's underappreciated how much work YouTube are doing behind the scenes to bring down the barriers: - Mapping revenue splits and sponsorship potential - Driving CPM premiums and audience growth - Building confidence with all stakeholders to get leagues to buy in - All whilst never committing to an upfront rights fee 🏟️ The broadcaster reality - Sky Sports didn’t “lose” these rights. With the EPL and EFL driving their market share, they have little incentive to spend on more live football inventory. - Their customers are already well-served, so creators entering the frame doesn’t really touch Sky’s core position. 🎥 The creator angle - We’ve seen creators like Zack Nani (SPL) commit upfront fees— (reported six figures) - and also invest in storytelling (interviews, off-field content, match narratives). - That’s a very different proposition to others like The Overlap or even the BBC, where they just took the world feed and put it out direct. ⚠️ Practical realities - These are short-term deals (I believe the creator deals are only 1 year) - they’re tests for all parties, not full pivots. - Distribution is usually limited (often just the world feed, no pre/post show) - Piracy risk is higher - VPN access makes it easier than most other platforms, and domestic partners (e.g. Sky Deutschland) could get uneasy if UK feeds leak across borders ✅ So what does this mean? - The Bundesliga deserves credit for expanding visibility through non-traditional channels, and YouTube’s persistence is clearly paying off in live sports. - Expect more leagues to make games available this way. - This is still a testing ground. Everything won't just change overnight. We’re some distance away from seeing top-tier domestic leagues putting their crown-jewel rights on YouTube instead of broadcasters or even their own D2C offerings. But equally the window of time to that happening has now become much, much shorter.

⚽ 📺 📲 UEFA Club Competitions 2027–2031: A New Map of Europe’s Media Landscape I have been involved in the UEFA Champions League since the very start, so I can't avoid keeping a constant eye on its development. Just finished pulling together a long read on the new UEFA club-competition rights for 2027–2031. Today’s announcements across the UK, Germany, Spain, Italy and France say much more than “who won the tender.” They reveal a Europe splitting in two. On one side, France, Spain and Italy double down on simplicity with a single, dominant broadcaster. On the other, the UK and Germany move decisively into a multi-platform world led by streaming players — Paramount+, Amazon, and potentially Netflix. The more I looked at it, the clearer the pattern became: this isn’t just a reshuffle of packages. It’s the first rights cycle shaped by the UC3–Relevent commercial model, with structures built for cross-market bids and platform-specific products. And it shows. I also pulled in reactions from two strong industry voices – Dawid Prokopowicz and Paolo Pescatore – who both spot the same fault line: the gravity of European football is drifting toward US-owned platforms, and subscription stacking is going to be the new normal in certain markets. 👉 If you want the full picture – the structure, the geography, the winners, the tensions, and the unseen architecture behind all of it – the article is here below. Happy to hear where you think this is heading next. A guy with a scarf is collaborating with Dolby OptiView — Enabling live sports experiences that engage and captivate fans. #UEFA #ChampionsLeague #MediaRights #Streaming #SportsBusiness #AGWAS

⚽ Ahead of NWSL Championship weekend, the commercial landscape of women's soccer in the US is no longer a trend—it's a hyper-growth market investors & brands are moving on. 🔥Women's sports revenues are growing significantly faster than men's in recent years, specifically in the US soccer market: • Media Rights Boom: The National Women's Soccer League (NWSL) secured new domestic media rights deals, boosting annual media revenue by a reported 40x. Next stop: building streamlined viewership / ease of discovery. • Team Valuations Soaring: NWSL team valuations have traded at figures as high as $250MM, showcasing investor confidence in the long-term profitability of the league. Supply / demand at its finest. • Fan Engagement & Attendance: Avg. attendance is up, with a record 6 clubs averaging 10K+ fans per home match, demonstrating an expanding & highly engaged fan base. More marketing / brand building here will push this forward. 📈 Where the Opportunities Exist Now The window to secure foundational partnerships remains open, offering high-impact opportunities with high ROI potential: Strategic Sponsorships & Commercial Partnerships: Focus on contextually relevant advertising & player-led collaborations. Look beyond traditional inventory to create purpose-driven campaigns that align with league values. ***Great recent examples: Bobbie’s “Soccer Moms” campaign and the leagues merch collab with Domo Wells.*** Player & League Brand Building: Proactively invest in athlete marketing & personal brand development. Help transform high-performing players into household names through high-production content, which drives league visibility and value. ***This has to be a priority with changing of generational player guard.*** 🌟 Game-Changers: The commercial power of women's soccer is magnified by its players, who double as cultural catalysts: • Trinity Rodman is one of the youngest million-dollar players in NWSL history, her deal with Adidas goes beyond gear, leveraging her youth appeal & dynamic play to connect the brand with the next gen of sports fans. • Ali Riley is a prime example of an athlete building a powerful brand beyond on-field stats, leading the league in active endorsement deals across categories like wellness, finance, and lifestyle (DoorDash, Klarna). 💡 Brand examples of those who have successfully implemented & realized ROI include: • Ally became the first company to dedicate a 50/50 spending pledge across men's and women's sports and is the title sponsor for the NWSL's Challenge Cup. This commitment to parity resonated massively, strengthening their reputation as a leader in financial equity. • Nationwide became the first-ever NWSL League Sponsor and deeply integrated their brand with community efforts—driving brand affinity and recall among the NWSL's socially conscious audience. 🎯 Key Takeaway: Women's soccer fans are 58% more likely than fans of other women's sports to make a purchase because of a brand's sponsorship.

We’re seeing a clear trend:  More live sports streaming to FAST platforms. From RSNs like the Anaheim Ducks and Dallas Stars to global events like UEFA Nations League, Copa Libertadores, and World Cup Qualifiers. What Tubi did with the Super Bowl wasn’t a one-off, it was a preview. As the legacy affiliate model continues to compress, rights holders face a choice: lock everything behind a paywall, or try something new. Viewership didn’t drop because fans lost interest. It dropped because the content became inaccessible. Make just a portion of it free and easy to watch, and the audience expands. Of course, FAST isn’t without challenges. CPM compression driven by redundant demand pathways and surplus of legacy ad pods remain obstacles.  The Solution -  innovating new advertising supply and building a curated marketplace designed for premium outcomes. When the advertising experience is more engaging and contextually aligned, rights holders benefit from diversified demand, higher CPMs, and more inventory valued as premium throughout the entire network - which encourages more live content to stream free. The cycle - better ads, better returns, better viewer experiences throughout broader distribution doesn’t only support ad revenue. It also builds a bridge back to owned & operated apps that elevate subscriber growth.

👉 If approved, this deal could reshape sports media economics: 📈 The NFL secures a ~10% equity stake in ESPN. 📺 ESPN gains control of NFL Network, RedZone, and 7 extra regular‑season games, bolstering its new $29.99/mo direct‑to‑consumer service. 💰 The NFL already earns $12B+ annually from media rights. This structure lets it share in ESPN’s upside instead of just collecting cash. This is media‑for‑equity at its most strategic: rights sellers become growth partners, platforms gain premium content without huge upfront cash, and incentives align for long‑term success. We’ve seen similar models work elsewhere including CBS × SportsLine – 22% equity for $100M in media credits, support, accelerating digital growth. As the media landscape evolves, media‑for‑equity could become a core strategy—not just for global giants like #ESPN and the #NFL, but also for emerging leagues, streaming platforms, and creators seeking smarter growth capital.

Are there too many sports documentaries getting made? Sports docs accounted for 3% of newly commissioned documentaries in 2019. That's now 12% in 2025. Here's how we got here... -In 2020 Drive To Survive and The Last Dance were massive hits — and sports leagues realized that follow-along docs could help engage new fans. (They also filled the void of live games during the pandemic). -Meanwhile streamers realized that sports docs were significantly cheaper than scripted TV & movies, but still attracted large audiences. -So we saw an explosion of these docs and production companies making them: Omaha Productions, Box To Box Films, SpringHill Entertainment, etc. Today basically every major sports IP holder has sold a doc to a major streamer. But here's the problem... -Fans are getting tired of this content. The storylines & character arcs are largely similar. The behind-the-scenes access often isn't enough. -All of a sudden, an NFL Quarterback series or NBA Starting 5 series on Netflix doesn't feel like must-watch TV anymore. -I listen to Bill Simmons' podcast religiously but haven't brought myself to watch his Celtics City series on HBO because I feel like I've watched so many sports docs recently. My two predictions going forward are... 1. For streamers: Those commissioning sports docs will start paying less attention to the IP, and more attention to the creative elements behind each project. Getting the right director, main characters, and sufficient access are just as important as getting a top-tier sports property. 2. For leagues & teams: Those selling doc rights will get more discerning about who they let produce and distribute their content. I can't think of a sports doc that's been too brand-dilutive. But leagues & teams only get so many shots on goal to make their own Drive To Survive. So I think they'll be more judicious about who they partner with. If you agree / disagree, curious to hear your thoughts! Chart: Bloomberg, Ampere Analysis

The business of sports is experiencing a fascinating paradox that reveals deeper trends about premium content economics. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred says they're in "three different sets of conversations" with potential media partners – a clear signal that the old playbook of exclusive, long-term deals is evolving toward portfolio approaches. Simultaneously, we're seeing small-market NBA Finals matchups, which traditionally concern network executives about ratings. Yet the data shows something more interesting: the audience for sports has become less dependent on market size and more about narrative, stars, and streaming accessibility. This reflects a broader shift in how we think about content valuation. The "big market bias" that dominated traditional media planning is being challenged by global audience development and the democratization of content discovery. For sports business leaders, this creates both opportunity and complexity. Rights packages that once seemed predictable are now being unbundled and reaggregated in ways that prioritize audience engagement over geographical constraints. The teams and leagues that understand this shift – building direct fan relationships beyond their traditional markets – will capture disproportionate value in the next media cycle.

Sports viewership is drastically changing. According to a Nielsen ratings report, in 2023 the NFL made up 93 of the top 100 broadcast programs. But the wide majority of those viewers included Boomers, Gen X, and Millennials. Gen Z is shifting the entire landscape of sports media as we know it. Here are a few interesting stats to consider about Gen Z from various reports: • 74% of Gen Zers get most of their sports content from social media • 60% have never watched a college game in person • 47% said they have never watched a professional sporting event in person • 28% of Gen Zers watch sports events live on broadcast or cable • 1% say they will go to a bar to watch a game The next generation of sports fans is less engaged, more isolated, and spends on average 7.2 hours in front of screens. Stakeholders across teams, leagues, and media companies have a reason for concern given the enormous value of media rights and deals. Despite all of this, I think there is still hope. Gen Z is still: • Highly engaged in women's sports which is on the rise • More diverse and culturally aware than previous generations • Very socially active and environmentally conscious For executives to succeed in this changing landscape they need to: • Be where Gen Z already is • Align with their interests and values • Make athletes the face and build points of connection • Consistently incorporate state-of-the-art technology and data • Create immersive and engaging experiences Times are changing. Older people have to be willing to change with it. #sportstech #sportsmedia #linkedinsports