Addressing Policy Gaps in Critical Raw Minerals

India's Critical Mineral Paradox: Sitting on a Goldmine While Importing at Premium Prices I’ve spent time building businesses across consumer tech, telecom, and industrial sectors. Reading Alkesh Kumar Sharma’s strategic analysis on critical minerals was a wake-up call: India is racing toward clean energy leadership while dangerously dependent on imports for the very minerals that make it possible. Here’s the link: https://lnkd.in/dpjKHMsb This isn't just policy. It's national security and controlling our destiny in the 21st century economy. The vulnerability: India is 100% dependent on imports for lithium, cobalt, and nickel, over 90% for Rare Earth Elements. China controls 60% of global REE production and 85% of processing. We're targeting 500 GW renewable energy and net zero by 2070, while handing veto power over our clean energy future to geopolitical competitors. Having run P&Ls across markets, I know 100% import dependence isn't a supply chain. It's a strategic chokepoint. But India is sitting on untapped wealth. Geological Survey identified 5.9 million tonnes of lithium in J&K, significant REE deposits in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. Yet mining contributes just 2.5% to GDP versus 13.6% in Australia. We have only 1% of global REE processing capacity. The government launched the National Critical Minerals Mission with ₹34,300 crore and auctioned 20 mineral blocks. The 2023 Mines Act opened private exploration. But execution determines everything. The urban goldmine: India generates 4 million tonnes of e-waste annually, only 10% formally recycled. Inside? The same minerals we're importing at massive cost. Attero proves what's possible. This Noida-based deeptech company achieves over 98% extraction efficiency in recovering rare earths like neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium, the exact elements we currently import. With over 200 patents filed and strong profitability, Attero’s revenue crossed approximately ₹1,000 crore in FY25, growing more than 50% year-on-year. The company works with all leading auto and battery manufacturers and is now expanding capacity sixfold to process 3 lakh tonnes annually, backed by significant capital infusion across India, Poland, and the US. India banned black mass exports, powder from shredded batteries we exported as cheap scrap to China, Korea, Japan who sold it back at 15-20x the price. This ban forces domestic refining. Attero proves we have the technology. The window is closing. If we don't build resilient supply chains through domestic mining, processing, and recycling, we're building our clean energy future on someone else's foundation. We have deposits, waste streams, and companies like Attero proving Indian technology competes globally. What we need is execution speed. #CriticalMinerals #CleanEnergy #AtmanirbharBharat #Sustainability #India

In a chapter co-authored with Udit Mathur for IDFC Foundation’s India Infrastructure Report 2024, we examine the twin resource challenges shaping India’s clean energy transition: critical minerals and water. As deployment of solar, wind, and storage accelerates, securing access to critical minerals is essential. We outline five strategic priorities for the Government’s Critical Minerals Mission—ranging from long-term planning and exploration to processing capabilities and international partnerships. We also highlight the water risk: India holds just 4% of the world’s freshwater but supports 18% of its population. With renewables expanding in water-scarce regions, we recommend stricter enforcement of water-use norms and cluster-level planning. Our core argument is that with anticipatory policy, institutional reform, and global collaboration, India can deliver on its energy transition goals without being constrained by these vital resources. #EnergyTransition #IIR2024 #ReNewTheFuture Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) MoEF&CC

The Union Budget’s announcement to develop dedicated rare earth and #criticalmineral corridors across #TamilNadu, #Kerala, #Odisha, and #AndhraPradesh comes at a decisive moment for India and the global economy. This initiative is not merely about mining - it is about strategic autonomy, clean industrial growth, and long-term economic resilience. Today, China controls over 60% of global rare earth mining and nearly 85% of processing capacity, creating significant supply-chain vulnerabilities for clean energy, electric mobility, electronics, defence systems, and advanced manufacturing. In contrast, countries such as the United States, Australia, and the European Union are aggressively building domestic capabilities, strategic reserves, and recycling ecosystems to reduce dependence on concentrated supply sources. Rare earth elements are essential inputs for EV motors, wind turbines, solar technologies, semiconductors, batteries, defence electronics, and medical equipment. As India targets large-scale EV adoption, renewable energy expansion, and domestic semiconductor manufacturing, secure access to critical minerals becomes non-negotiable. The proposed corridors—spanning mining, processing, R&D, and manufacturing create an integrated ecosystem rather than fragmented interventions. Equally important is the opportunity to supplement primary mining with secondary sources. Estimates indicate that India’s e-waste alone could yield nearly 1,300 tonnes of rare earth elements, while mine tailings and industrial waste offer additional recovery potential. Last year’s ₹1,500 crore allocation for extracting critical minerals from waste streams was an important start, but scale, coordination, and regulatory clarity are now essential to unlock meaningful impact. The regulatory framework must evolve accordingly. E-waste Management Rules should clearly classify critical minerals as high-value strategic resources, not residual waste. Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) frameworks must go beyond compliance and actively incentivise recovery, recycling, and reuse. At the same time, India’s large informal recycling sector—currently operating without safety nets must be formalised through technology transfer, skilling, access to finance, and transition incentives, ensuring both environmental protection and dignified livelihoods. From an economic and urban governance perspective, the implications are significant. Rare earth corridors can catalyse clean manufacturing clusters, generate high-skill employment, and reduce import dependence. Cities and industrial regions will benefit from value-added manufacturing, innovation ecosystems, and circular-economy models that align growth. If executed with coordination and clarity, this initiative can deliver multiple dividends: lower emissions, reduced waste, enhanced competitiveness, skilled job creation, and greater self-reliance.

The European Court of Auditors has published a sobering assessment of the EU’s critical raw materials policy. Its conclusion is unambiguous: the EU has set a strategic course, but it still rests on incomplete foundations. The findings are telling: 📦 The EU remains fully import-dependent for 10 of its 26 critical raw materials. 🧲 Rare earth elements are neither mined nor processed domestically. 🤝 Despite 14 strategic partnerships, imports from partner countries declined for 13 key materials between 2020 and 2024. The report also underlines the growing gap between policy ambition and delivery. While strategic projects benefit from faster permitting and greater visibility, many are unlikely to contribute meaningfully to EU supply by 2030. This reflects a structural reality: Mining projects are inherently long-term. By contrast, midstream capacity -refining, separation, and processin- can be scaled faster, but faces thin margins, high energy costs, and intense global competition. What is missing is not ambition. Even with frameworks such as the Critical Raw Materials Act and REsourceEU, Europe remains structurally vulnerable due to slow permitting, fragmented financing instruments, and risk-averse investment structures. What we now need is clear: 💰 Deploy capital at speed and scale to bring strategic projects to financial close 🏗️ Treat midstream capacity as strategic industrial infrastructure 🤝 Make strategic partnerships supply-relevant through volume commitments and bankable offtake ♻️ Integrate recycling and circularity into industrial planning and manufacturing demand The report is a timely wake-up call. Aligning policy frameworks with industrial reality is no longer optional. The window to act is narrow and closing fast. Links: https://lnkd.in/eZnU6pRC

𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘪𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘢 𝘢𝘭𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘺 𝘩𝘦𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘭𝘥’𝘴 𝘣𝘪𝘨𝘨𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘺 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘫𝘢𝘤𝘬𝘱𝘰𝘵𝘴 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘵, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘸𝘢𝘴 𝘣𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘵? India today has the third largest rare earth mineral reserves globally, with an estimated 6.9 million tonnes of rare earths concentrated largely in coastal monazite sands across states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. Yet, despite this geological advantage, India contributes less than 1% of global rare earth production, even as demand from EVs, wind turbines, electronics and defense systems explodes worldwide. This gap between reserves and production is not just a missed business opportunity; it is a strategic vulnerability in a world where supply chains for critical minerals are being rapidly weaponised. Rare earths quietly power a lot of what people use every day - from smartphones and laptops to the motors inside electric cars and the magnets in wind turbines. While one country still dominates most of the mining and over 90% of the refining capacity, governments and businesses around the world are now scrambling to diversify where these materials come from, and India’s resource base gives it a real chance to move from being a net importer to a serious alternative supplier. With new initiatives around critical minerals and incentives for rare earth magnet manufacturing, policy momentum is finally starting to catch up with this strategic opportunity. For leaders in Indian industry, this is a moment to think long term. Instead of staying at the level of raw material exports or finished magnet imports, there is room to build an entire value chain - from exploration and processing technologies to downstream manufacturing and deep tech R&D in EVs, grid storage, electronics and defense. That will demand patient capital, supportive regulation and close collaboration between government, PSUs, private miners, start‑ups and advanced manufacturers, but the payoff could redefine India’s role in the clean tech and advanced manufacturing map for decades to come.

Africa holds the minerals that will define the 21st-century economy. But here is the unresolved tension: How can African nations capture more value from their critical minerals without disrupting investment and global supply chains? For decades, Africa has been viewed as just a supplier. Today, it is a strategic gatekeeper of the 21st-century economy. Consider the structural reality: •        ~70% of global cobalt comes from the DRC •        >75% of platinum group metals come from South Africa •        Guinea supplies more than 20% of the world’s bauxite •        Zambia and the DRC together account for roughly 10% of global copper Yet most of these minerals still leave the continent in raw or minimally processed form, with less than 15% processed in Africa. Africa sells the inputs — while others capture the industries built on top of them. This imbalance is not sustainable. This debate is often framed as a binary choice: resource nationalism or unrestricted extraction. But that framing misses the real solution. To address this tension, I developed Proportional Collaborative Sovereignty™ (PCS) — a framework I designed to align Africa’s sovereign development objectives with the realities of global supply chains. PCS offers a structured, phased approach: •        Sovereignty for local value addition expands in line with domestic capacity to process and refine minerals •        Industrial development advances through structured international partnerships •        Supply chains become more diversified and resilient In other words: resource ownership becomes a platform for industrial growth — not just extraction. History shows that coordination matters: oil producers once undercut each other until they spoke with one voice. Africa, with its critical minerals, is in a comparable structural position. When African nations align policy with capability and collaborate strategically, investment becomes credible, processing capacity scales, and industrial value is captured domestically — all while supporting stable global supply chains. The question is no longer whether the current model will evolve. The question is how. #CriticalMinerals #Africa #SupplyChains #EnergyTransition #Industrialization #ValueAddition #MineralProcessing

We continue to see bipartisan calls for urgent action on critical minerals, so why does policymaking feel as though it’s failing to meet the moment? The 45X tax credit has been one of America’s most effective tools at onshoring #battery and #solar manufacturing, and while probably insufficiently generous for #criticalminerals, it nonetheless has improved the economics of domestic mining and processing projects. That’s now at risk. The permanence of the critical minerals production tax credit in 45X (vs. proposed phaseout) is necessary for projects expected to demonstrate economic viability over asset lives typically reaching 10-20 years. In a phaseout scenario, projects in construction would see their effective benefits curtailed to just a few years. No project still in development could credibly market a 10% PTC in financial forecasts. These projects need to demonstrate not just viability, but an attractive return for investors to raise equity capital. The tax credits provide a base level of support that make US projects more competitive, not just against foreign competitors but against the universe of other potential investments offering lower risk or much higher returns. So why the dissonance between what appear to be universal priorities, and our policy outcomes? ----------------------- I suspect it’s because critical minerals are rooted in the #mining sector, and not sufficiently seen as niche but vital components of modern industrial #supplychains. Old habits die hard. But the mining project development cycle, with boom-bust cycles that promise windfalls in deficit conditions and survival mechanisms when surpluses produce low prices, is a poor fit for the de-risking and investment framework needed to achieve minerals security objectives. Few if any of these materials will ever exhibit the proper commodity dynamics we see with copper, iron, coal, or gold. I continue to see: 1. Excessive focus on permitting as a policy solution, with companies giving policymakers a false impression that deregulatory actions are sufficient to get their projects financed. 2. Developers marketing their projects like a standard mining project for base/precious metals with wildly inflated NPV + IRR calculations and overly aggressive payback periods. 3. Ideological resistance to highlighting market failures, private sector shortcomings, and the necessary condition of direct government support to counter the predatory actions of competing state actors like China. I’d like to see more project developers with high-quality assets (and their industry reps) candidly spelling out the policy support needed to de-risk projects and allay investors’ concerns about facing down anti-competitive market behaviors from China. Policymakers can’t meet the moment if industry isn’t effectively communicating its challenges. https://lnkd.in/gYhNNjRK

CRITICAL MINERALS & DEFENDING THE U.S. - These Materials Could Cripple America’s Defense Industrial Base - A Practical Test for Material Chokepoints - Not every “critical” material is an urgent problem. A material chokepoint exists when five conditions coincide: high concentration in mining or refining, direct defense criticality, low substitutability without performance loss, long, capital-intensive build times, and recent signs of policy leverage such as export licenses, price manipulation, quotas, or prohibitions. - How vital is each material to U.S. defense, and how much leverage does China wield? - GRAPH: Figure 1. This chokepoint matrix flags where a shortfall would ripple through U.S. defense programs the fastest and where the weaponization of supply chains by an adversary would cause major disruptions. It synthesizes public sources (i.e., U.S. Geological Society, International Energy Agency, and export-control reports). Axes are ordinal 0-12 and convey relative differences (not metric). - First-tier risks are gallium, the battery-chemicals chain, tungsten, and graphite. A second tier includes titanium sponge, germanium, antimony, indium, magnesium, and molybdenum, with nitrocellulose and finish-line capacity in specialty steels and aerospace aluminum requiring near-term hedges because surge capacity is slow to add. - NOTE: Crucially, most chokepoints rarely happen at the actual mine. Most problems occur in mid- and downstream steps such as refining, separation, smelting, high-purity processing, alloying, component manufacture, and device-grade finishing. Ore alone does not deliver security. Rather, mid- and downstream control does. - Two pathways close gaps. 1. First, build at home - where chemistry, processing and finishing are the binding constraints rather than geology. This includes materials such as lithium-ion battery chemistry, coated and synthetic graphite anodes, nitrocellulose for propellants, semiconductor wafer and epitaxy capacity, infrared-optics finishing cells, tungsten-carbide recycling, and the finishing lines for specialty steels and aerospace aluminum. - Expanding these capabilities at home reduces exposure to Chinese leverage, grows the U.S. industrial base, and ensures that the finishing steps most critical to defense remain under American control. 2. Second, hedge upstream exposures with allies where ore, smelting, or primary refining are concentrated abroad. - Examples include structured offtake and investment, "U.S. recycling," and interim tolling until U.S. lines qualify. - For each material, align remedy to the chokepoint: If it is chemistry or device-grade finishing, build U.S. lines with price floors and multiyear offtake. If it is about upstream and feed gaps, use allied offtake and tolling as U.S. finishing ramps. When policy leverage appears, apply the playbook. - https://lnkd.in/dr8hgACm

The International Energy Agency (IEA)’s published Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 provides a comprehensive assessment of the current state and #future trends in the critical #minerals market, highlighting both the opportunities and challenges associated with the #energy transition. The global energy transition, driven by the rapid adoption of clean energy technologies like electric vehicles and #renewable energy, is fueling unprecedented demand for critical minerals such as #copper, #lithium, #nickel, #graphite, and rare earth elements. This high demand is projected to surge significantly by 2040. However, supply constraints and vulnerabilities pose significant challenges. While mineral supply has grown, it remains highly concentrated, particularly in refining, where #China dominates, increasing risks of disruptions due to export controls or policy interventions. This concentration underscores the urgent need for diversification through international partnerships, new technologies, and #policy support. Investment in critical mineral projects has slowed due to declining prices and market uncertainty, despite long-term demand growth. The report highlights potential supply deficits for copper and lithium by 2035, emphasizing the need for new projects and robust financing. #Africa, with nearly 30% of global critical mineral reserves, holds immense potential but faces barriers like inadequate #infrastructure and regulatory uncertainty. Less than 10% of planned projects in Southern Africa have secured #funding, limiting the region’s role in #global #supplychains. To address these challenges, the report advocates for international cooperation, policy incentives to boost investment, and scaling up recycling to enhance supply security and sustainability. Emerging technologies, such as lithium iron phosphate and sodium-ion batteries, alongside a circular economy approach, could reduce reliance on primary sources. By rethinking supply chains, #governments and #industry leaders can build a more resilient, equitable, and sustainable critical minerals #ecosystem to support the global energy transition. #economy #investing #trade #stockmarket #strategy #business #ecosystem #risk #governance #future