Creative Industry Trends

Securing rights to music catalogs has been a consistent business model in the industry: Buy up the hits, collect royalties for life. And it’s still a viable option. Catalog music is the most streamed online, accounting for 72.6% of total album-equivalent music consumption in 2023. But AI poses a unique threat. A lot of money made off these catalogs comes from sync licensing (background music, B-roll, or international campaigns). Using even a short snippet of a popular song can be costly. So, if you're a brand, and want something like “Bohemian Rhapsody” but don’t want to pay a fortune, AI may be able to get you 90% of the way there for next to nothing. Especially for music that’s only getting 10 seconds of air time, brands may think twice before they invest in the real deal. Of course, there will always be a difference between “sounds like” and “is.” The original work carries weight, and as long as that still matters to people, catalogs will hold value. But the economics around music are shifting. If you're investing in catalogs—or building a business around them—don't just look at historical returns. Factor in where technology is headed.

GenAI will split the creative industry in two, and I’m having some serious déjà vu. Hear me out. For the past year, I’ve always said in my talks that GenAI's impact on creativity will mirror what YouTube did for media. I should know. I spent 7 years leading the partnerships team at YouTube, right as the creator economy was exploding. And at first, the parallels felt positive. YouTube gave anyone with a camera a global stage. The early, invite-only Partner Program (YPP) meant YouTube could control the supply of ad inventory, ensuring creators earned meaningful revenue. It was a new, vibrant ecosystem. The narrative of democratisation in full swing. But then the floodgates opened. When the YPP eligibility criteria were lowered globally, the supply of content suddenly overwhelmed advertiser demand. I was on the front lines, on calls with creators, trying to explain why their RPMs were plummeting. It was a classic supply shock. The promise that everyone could be a full-time creator turned out to be a myth for most. As of 2024, a staggering 97.5% of YouTubers earned less than the U.S. poverty line via ads, while the platforms have scaled into giants. Now, I see the same pattern emerging with GenAI in the advertising and marketing world. Just in the last two weeks, I've attended two different launch events for new, AI-first creative studios. Their pitch is compelling: "same quality for less budget." They are built to win business from incumbents by competing on cost efficiency. We're already seeing established players like WPP feel the pressure. We’re currently living through the golden age of GenAI democratisation. But, I believe GenAI is on a path to becoming the commoditisation engine of creativity. Which will split the market in two. THE EXECUTION The day-to-day work of creating social videos, performance ads, basic animations will become a hyper-competitive, low-margin race to the bottom - even more so than today. THE STRATEGY The uniquely human part with the core idea, the deep cultural insight, the emotional intelligence will become priceless - even more so than today. As the 'how' gets commoditised, the 'why' becomes everything. When everyone can make anything, the only thing that matters is the brilliance of the original concept. I'm still excited about the new talent GenAI will unearth. But I’m worried the economic model being built will, once again, primarily benefit the tech platforms, not the creatives themselves. Do you see it unfolding differently? Is this race to the bottom preventable? And what happens when even the strategy can be done with advanced AI models and agents?

The music industry is shifting (again) … For decades, labels and publishers were chasing the next big hit or the next rising star. Today? The real race is for 𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐬. - In France, catalog streams now account for 60% of paid audio streaming (SNEP / Billboard France). - In the US, catalog listening grew twice as fast as new releases (Luminate via Billboard). - Billions are being poured into acquisitions — from Queen to Michael Jackson to publishing portfolios (MIDiA Research). The truth is: 𝒄𝒂𝒕𝒂𝒍𝒐𝒈 𝒉𝒂𝒔 𝒂𝒍𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔 𝒃𝒆𝒆𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒇𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒂𝒍 𝒆𝒏𝒈𝒊𝒏𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒊𝒔 𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒖𝒔𝒕𝒓𝒚. But for years, it was neglected in terms of resources and strategy. (I’ve seen it firsthand during my time working in a back catalogue team.) That perception is changing. Older tracks are being pushed back into the spotlight by trends, syncs, and nostalgia. And let’s be honest: even the Backstreet Boys are “back catalogue” now (sorry to say it, but "I Want It That Way" is already decades old!). The benefit? The development investment was already made years ago. Today, catalogs deliver high-margin profits with minimal new costs. With streaming, they generate recurring long-term revenues, which in turn can finance the development of new talent. This doesn’t mean new talent doesn’t matter, but it shows where investors, majors, and even artists (Taylor Swift included) see long-term value. The industry is moving from a hit-driven gamble to a catalog-driven strategy. And that shift is reshaping everything: from marketing priorities to investment models. What do you think this means for the discovery and support of tomorrow’s artists? #MusicIndustry #Streaming #Strategy #Catalog #MusicBusiness

The Future of Music Engagement: A Summary Over the past few weeks, I’ve explored some of the key challenges and opportunities facing the music industry. From the echo chamber effect of algorithms to the untapped power of community and superfandom, one thing is clear: music engagement needs a reboot. We started by examining how streaming platforms, once defined by convenience, have lost the emotional connection that music once provided. The endless loop of algorithm-driven recommendations has made discovery feel stagnant. It’s time for a shift—one that reintroduces excitement, serendipity, and genuine music discovery. Personalisation, while well-intended, often ends up repeating the same content. What we need now are smarter AI and user interfaces that help listeners step outside their comfort zones. Platforms that break free from the repetition cycle will create deeper, more meaningful listening experiences. We also discussed the value of tastemakers and user-generated playlists. These curators were once central to discovery, but they’ve been buried by platform-owned playlists. It’s time for DSPs to revive and celebrate tastemakers, making discovery exciting again by rewarding those who curate great content. And we can’t ignore the importance of community. Music is a shared experience, and the future of streaming will be shaped by how well platforms integrate social interaction. Features like co-creation, fan-driven content, and real-time artist interaction can transform passive listening into active engagement. Superfans are the backbone of the music industry. Gamification and deeper interactivity are key to monetising this group beyond traditional merch. By giving fans more ways to connect with their favourite artists, platforms can drive both engagement and new revenue streams. Ultimately, the future of music engagement depends on thinking beyond quantitative data-driven assumptions and actively listening to what fans want. Rethinking discovery mechanisms, building communities, and empowering superfans can all contribute to creating music experiences that people truly love. As we move forward, there’s a real opportunity for the industry to forge more meaningful connections between artists and fans—and additional revenue streams for everyone involved. If any of these ideas spark your interest, let’s talk about how we can drive change together. #MusicInnovation #FanEngagement #DigitalTransformation #Superfandom #FutureOfMusic #StreamingPlatforms #CreativeEvolution Pete Downton, Devraj Sanyal, Ed Newton-Rex, Bill Gagnon, Ty Roberts, Angela Lopes, Gemma Gilday, Raoul Chatterjee, Dion Singer, Linda Walker, Rob Ryan, Jacob Fowler, Chris Carey, T. Jay Fowler, Diverge, Imogen Heap, Olivier Robert-Murphy, Ross Foster, Slawomir Sajdak, Michael Nash, Jonathan Dworkin, Chris Horton, Paul Firth, Jacob Deshayes, Ching-Ching Chen, Emmy Lovell, Amanda Marks, Isabel Garvey, Simon Robson, Kazuhiro Shimada, Mike Jbara, Leo Ferrante, vickie nauman

Over the past few months, I’ve watched colleagues lose jobs, studios restructure, and businesses that once felt immovable suddenly look very fragile. Having gone through Pixomondo's winding down, it’s impossible not to reflect on where the industry now finds itself. Unfortunately, it doesn’t feel like an isolated case. From Technicolor's collapse, Marvel's layoffs and restructuring across media, gaming and technology, the pattern is difficult to ignore. I honestly don’t know if the traditional VFX model is still aligned with modern production. For years, the industry was built around large fixed infrastructure, global footprints and pipelines optimised for scale, but not always flexibility. Great when volume was predictable, cycles were long and technology evolved incrementally. But through Covid, strikes, shrinking commissions, streaming wars, pressure on theatrical and rapidly evolving technology, the model has started to creak. I think that we’re not experiencing a downturn but a recalibration of how creative work is structured, financed and delivered and some of the things that made large VFX companies so powerful may now make adaptation harder. Meanwhile, smaller, agile creative businesses are moving differently: lighter infrastructure, faster iteration, closer integration between creative and technology, engagement earlier in development and fluid adoption of AI workflows. This is not about replacing craft, but repositioning it. Because despite all the noise around automation and Agentic AI, the things that still matter most are the things audiences have always responded to: taste, storytelling, emotional intelligence, performance and creative judgment. AI is accelerating workflows no doubt, but it can’t replace perspective. And honestly, despite everything that’s happened over the last few months, that’s where I feel optimistic. Some of the most exciting conversations I’m now having are about building smarter, adaptive creative systems where artists, technologists and filmmakers collaborate earlier and more fluidly. These conversations are genuinely electrifying. To me, this doesn’t feel like the death of the industry. It feels more like the end of one industrial model of it. This moment is undeniably painful for a lot of people, myself included, but it’s also pretty exciting getting to spend time with the next generation of creative companies, who will look very different from the last: integrated, adaptive and on the creative frontline. In many ways, closer to where the industry was 25 years ago, when CG was new and disruptive. That shift is informing what I’m now building: helping creative companies navigate the intersection of production, AI, real-time technology and commercial strategy in a way that is both creatively meaningful and operationally sustainable. Hopefully some cool stuff to talk about in the next few weeks. But for the first time in a while, I’m genuinely excited about what comes next.

For most of my life, the music industry was built around a small number of gatekeepers who decided which artists got access. That world is gone. When Spotify launched in 2008, there were a few hundred thousand artists globally trying to break through. Today, there are well over 10 million artists on streaming platforms. Most of them are independent. That shift is not theoretical. It shows up in the data. Twenty years ago, independent artists represented roughly 10 percent of airplay. Today, they account for more than a quarter of all global streams, and that share is growing every year. 📈 Distribution has been democratized. Creation has exploded. But here’s the part people still get wrong. While distribution opened up, access did not. Capital, brand amplification, data, and decision makers are still concentrated in the same places they were before. The bottleneck simply moved. This is why the next chapter of the music industry will not be defined by who can upload a song. It will be defined by who can build a sustainable business around talent. Independent artists are no longer emerging. They are becoming the center of gravity. And the infrastructure around them is finally starting to catch up.

Released today, the Luminate 2025 Year-End Music Report is one of the industry’s most essential annual reviews. Some highlights of the 2025 edition: 📈 Global On-Demand Audio streaming grew 9.6% even as the U.S. market showed signs of a mature market slowdown. The industry reached a milestone with 106,000 new ISRCs delivered to DSPs every day. 🎤 Taylor Swift made history with The Life of a Showgirl earning over 4 million equivalent album units in its first week. This release shattered expectations and proved the ceiling for fan engagement is still rising. 🌍 Japan and Brazil emerged as the new engines for premium streaming growth. India also showed massive potential with premium streams growing 42% as it converts ad-supported users to paid tiers. 🎸 Rock and Christian/Gospel led U.S. genre growth with Rock increasing its audio streaming share by .30 sharepoints. Christian/Gospel volume grew 18.5% year over year. 📺 The "Transmedia Artist" became a dominant force as catalogs like Led Zeppelin saw a 16% streaming lift from a Netflix documentary. Ariana Grande bridged the gap between Broadway and global charts in Wicked. 🤖 AI artists entered the mainstream as Xania Monet became the first AI-generated performer to reach the Billboard Top 30 Adult R&B Airplay chart. However 45% of listeners expressed discomfort with AI for original compositions. 💿 U.S. vinyl sales grew for the 19th straight year to 47.9 million units. Direct-to-consumer sales now make up 13.6% of all physical albums as artists sell directly to their most loyal fans. 🎮 Gaming platforms like Fortnite are now critical to release strategies. The Daft Punk activation generated 1.1 million Global Interactive Streams in its first week. 💎 Premium subscriber conversion reached new heights in Latin America with Mexico setting the pace for global growth. Paid streamers account for 76% of all U.S. music spending. 🤝 Nigeria increased its Global Export Power ranking to #19 as artists connect with worldwide audiences. Brazil also moved up the rankings due to strengths in Latin music exports. Head to the Comments to download the full report

UK and US Agencies Are Quietly Moving Capabilities To... 👉 Colombia 👉 Philippines 👉 South Africa These markets are becoming the new frontlines. Why? ❌ Margins are under siege ❌ The model is being rewritten ❌ And the new map isn’t where you think Inside these agencies, a quiet transformation is underway. → It’s not loud → It’s not flashy → But it’s changing everything These agencies are redrawing: → How work gets done → Where it gets done → Who gets to do it And it’s all being driven by one relentless pressure: 👉 MARGIN. ❌ Clients want more for less. ❌ Timelines are shorter. ❌ Scopes are tighter. And agency leaders face a brutal equation: → Protect profit. → Keep clients. 🌀 The shift... For decades, agency operations revolved around legacy HQs → London → New York → Singapore Post-COVID, the landscape shifted. ❌ The legacy model no longer pays the bills ❌ Holding on to it isn’t just outdated, it’s commercially unsustainable What we’re seeing now is a deliberate strategic shift: → Away from central delivery models → Away from over-reliance on high-cost talent hubs → Toward leaner, smarter, and more agile support systems 👉 This is not about cutting corners... It’s about building capability where it delivers: ✅ Strategic impact ✅ Operational efficiency ✅ Commercial advantage 🌀 Where the work is happening Today, more work is pitched and sold in Tier 1 markets… …but delivered elsewhere at scale, with quality, and increasingly with pride. 🟠 LATAM → Colombia is now a front-foot delivery hub → High-calibre output → Time zone alignment → Deep, scalable talent pools → Cost structures that protect margin 🟢 Africa → South Africa leads in digital services → Kenya is scaling in data and performance → Both offer high-quality, English-speaking talent and cultural alignment 🔵 Asia → The Philippines remains strong in content ops → Vietnam is emerging in UX and tech delivery → Thailand is gaining ground as a creative production hub 🌀 My take... 👉 This isn’t just about cost 👉 It’s about control This shift unlocks more than a margin. → It creates optionality. ✅ Unlock high-performance global talent ✅ Scale capacity up or down with commercial reality ✅ Increase efficiency without compromising marketing impact ✅ Build hybrid models that deliver global scalability and local relevance → Independent operators → Exit-focused founders → PE-backed scale-ups 👉 This is how you... ✅ Protect margin ✅ Maximise valuation ✅ Scale with confidence 🌀 My final thought... 👉 Capability is the new HQ. Let’s be clear: → It’s not a workaround → It’s not a step down → It is the new strategic operating model.... ... how smart agencies are building 👉 Profit 👉 Resilience 👉 Relevance in a high-pressure market ✅ Driven by agility ✅ Built around performance ✅ Powered by global capability So if you’re still debating whether to offshore, you’re already behind. Because the question isn’t “should we?” It’s “How fast can we?” ivanfernandes.me

🚨 Hot take: The future of music won’t be decided by hits. It’ll be decided by infrastructure. We’re spending a lot of time debating: • AI vs artists • Streaming payouts • Who’s “next” to break globally But the real power shift is happening somewhere else. 🎯 Behind the scenes, the winners are being determined by who controls the rails: – Rights attribution – Licensing frameworks (especially for AI + UGC) – Metadata accuracy – Cross-border royalty payments – Catalog governance and transparency Hits still matter. Culture always matters. But economics are being shaped by systems — not songs. In the AI era, a record can travel instantly. If the infrastructure can’t track it, license it, or pay it correctly… the value leaks. This is why: • Catalogs are being treated like long-term assets • DSPs are quietly testing new payout logic • Regions like South Asia are at an inflection point — massive demand, but infrastructure must catch up • AI licensing is moving from lawsuits to frameworks 💡 My belief: The next decade won’t be won by whoever has the biggest hit. It’ll be won by whoever builds (or plugs into) the most durable systems. Artists, labels, distributors, publishers — this is the real strategic question: Are you optimizing for this release… or for the infrastructure that supports the next 100? Curious how others are thinking about this. What part of the music “backend” do you think matters most right now? 👇 #MusicIndustry #Leadership #FKTips

Music Industry Trends Worth Your Time • AI is now part of the foundation We’ve moved past the debate stage. AI is already being used in writing, production, marketing, and even fan interaction. The real conversation now is: 👉 How do we use it without losing identity? 👉 How do we protect value while increasing output? Because if everyone can create… differentiation becomes everything. • Streaming still runs the game—but it’s far from solved 👉 Most artists aren’t seeing meaningful income from it Which leads to the next shift… • The rise of “artist as ecosystem” The idea that music alone can sustain a career is fading. Artists now have to think like: • Content creators • Brands • Media companies Revenue is becoming diversified: 👉 Direct-to-fan sales 👉 Experiences 👉 Sync/licensing 👉 Brand partnerships 👉 Community-driven monetization The artists who understand this are building real leverage. • Fan connection is replacing passive consumption Algorithms can give you exposure. But they don’t build loyalty. We’re seeing a shift toward: Community building Direct communication (email, text, WhatsApp, Discord) The casual listener is easy to get. The true fan is what sustains you. • Content is no longer optional—it is the strategy Music used to be the product. Now music + content = discovery. Short-form video, YouTube, podcasts, storytelling… These aren’t marketing tools anymore—they’re distribution channels. Artists who understand narrative and consistency are winning. • New platforms and tools are opening up monetization We’re seeing new ways for creators to earn $$$: • Creator marketplaces • Direct storefronts for services and products • Fan subscriptions • Alternative distribution models This reduces dependence on gatekeepers. • The U.S. is no longer the only center of gravity. Growth is happening in: • Latin America • Africa • Southeast Asia And audiences are more open than ever to music in different languages. Don't just think locally.  • Live music and real-world experiences still matter—maybe more than ever, physical connection becomes more valuable. We’re seeing: • Intimate shows • Unique live experiences • Community-driven events Fans want something they can feel, not just stream. • Data is everywhere But: 👉 More data doesn’t always mean better decisions The real skill is knowing: • What matters • What to ignore • When to trust instinct over numbers • The industry is more open—but also more crowded 👉 More music 👉 More content 👉 More competition Attention is now the most valuable currency. So what’s the takeaway? You either: Build something intentional—your sound, your brand, your audience, your ecosystem or Get absorbed into a system that rewards volume over identity The artists who figure out how to cut through the noise— without losing who they are— are the ones who will actually build lasting careers.