Trends Shaping Deal-Making in Africa

Africa is entering a period where demographics, #capital flows, and structural gaps are aligning. By 2035, the continent will have the world’s largest working-age population. #Urbanization is accelerating, consumption is rising, and governments are under pressure to build systems that work at scale. Investment will follow these pressures, not abstract trends. ⚡ Clean energy and climate transition will sit at the core. Nearly 600 million #Africans still lack reliable #electricity. At the same time, #Africa holds around 30% of the world’s known mineral reserves critical for the global energy transition, including #cobalt, #manganese, and #graphite. The opportunity is not just #mining, but processing, storage, and industrial #energy use. Solar mini-grids, energy-as-a-service models, and localized industrial power solutions will outperform large, centralized bets that rely on slow-moving state utilities. 🛜 Digitization and fintech will continue to redefine how value moves. Africa already hosts some of the world’s fastest-growing #fintech markets, with digital payments and mobile money becoming default rails rather than alternatives. The next phase is #infrastructure: data centers, cloud services, cybersecurity, and digital identity. These are not “tech plays” anymore; they are productivity multipliers for governments, SMEs, and consumers. 🏗️ Trade, logistics, and transport infrastructure will quietly become one of the most important themes. The African Continental Free Trade Area promises a single market of over 1.3 billion people, but #trade cannot expand without #ports, rail, warehousing, and efficient border systems. Investments in smart #logistics, cold chains, and last-mile delivery will unlock regional #manufacturing and #agribusiness more effectively than tariff reforms alone. 🛒 Essential consumer products and services will benefit from sheer population momentum. Food processing, affordable #housing, healthcare, and education are moving from fragmented, informal models to scaled systems. Packaged foods, diagnostics, private clinics, and vocational education platforms are not luxury sectors; they are responses to urban density and rising expectations. Africa’s middle class may be uneven, but its demand for basic quality is not. Finally, industrialization through application-specific solutions will matter more than grand industrial policy. Clean energy for factories, digital tools for farmers, and financing embedded directly into supply chains will create asymmetric returns. The winners will not be those who copy global models, but those who adapt them to #African constraints. Africa’s next decade will not be defined by a single boom. It will be shaped by interconnected systems slowly locking into place. For #investors, the real risk is not volatility. It is ignoring the quiet, structural shifts already underway. 🔄️ Repost to your network to educate others.

Yesterday I went to an investment salon in Krakow. Today I can't stop thinking about Africa. Zachariah George, GP at Launch Africa Ventures, gave one of those rare talks that stays with you. It wasn't hype. It was context. Numbers. Trends. Real startup stories. Here are a few things: 1. Demographics that change the game Zach asked a simple question: “What’s the median age in Europe?” Someone said 43. He nodded. “Now guess Africa.” Answer: 18. Let that sink in. Half the continent is younger than 18. Japan and EU are aging and shrinking, Africa is the opposite: young, urbanizing fast and increasingly connected. “By the end of the century, one in every three people born will be African.” - ZG 2. Infrastructure leapfrogged In 2010, there were more cell phones in Manhattan than in the entire African continent. Today, Africa has more mobile lines than North America. Also this: In 2010: $50 for 1GB of data. Today: Less than $2. Cheap data + rising smartphone adoption = a new consumer base coming online fast. 3. Innovation follows pain, not privilege “Africa’s not solving first-world nice-to-haves. These are bleeding-neck problems.” - ZG African startups aren’t building drone delivery for smoothies (like some SF startups that raise $$$ for nice to have solutions). They’re building payment rails where banks don't reach. Telemedicine for regions with no hospitals. Buy-now-pay-later models where credit cards don’t exist. The result? High retention, real adoption, sticky revenue. 4. Venture capital: still early, still cheap Africa is 18% of global population. It contributes ~8% to global GDP. But receives only 1.5–2% of global venture capital. That’s what Zach called a "double arbitrage": Underfunded compared to its size Valuations at early stage are 3–5x lower than for similar SaaS businesses in Europe/US. (hey CEE founders 👋) Example: A B2B SaaS startup with $1M ARR in South Africa might raise at 4x revenue. The same startup in US? 12–15x. 5. Unicorns are real Africa now has 16 unicorns (and counting). Some got there in 3–5y. Not 10. All of them started in fintech - then expanded into embedded finance, lending, super apps. “When you’re solving for essential infrastructure, switching costs are massive. Customers don’t leave.” - ZG And series B/C valuations normalize or even exceed US/EU once these companies go global. 6. My coincidence (or not?) Today, totally unplanned, I had a call booked with a business from Kenya. They're building agri tech. Real business. Need help with sales - no CRM can help those folks. Coincidence? Maybe. But more likely: a signal. What I took away Africa isn't "coming up." It's already happening. It’s just not in your feed. And it won't wait for your market to saturate. “If you're not solving for Africa now, someone else is.” - ZG If you're building tech and thinking about expansion - this market is worth studying. And if you're an African founder reading this - I’d love to learn from you. DMs open.

Africa’s infrastructure story is being rewritten — and private capital is holding the pen ✍️ AVCA’s latest report paints a clear picture: for too long, Africa’s infrastructure financing has leaned heavily on the public sector (a staggering 95%!). But with low tax revenues and mounting SDG targets, the urgency for private capital has never been clearer ⚠️ The good news? Private investors are stepping up in a big way: ➡️ $47.3bn deployed across 847 deals between 2012-2023 ➡️ A clear surge in sustainable infrastructure, with 305 deals focused on renewable energy, healthcare, and education ➡️ 73% of deals under $50m — showing that smaller, impactful projects are thriving alongside megadeals What’s particularly striking is how Africa is bucking global trends — equity financing (not debt) is driving infrastructure investment. This appetite for higher returns signals confidence in Africa’s future, but also highlights the need to build robust infrastructure debt markets. The shift is also sectoral — while economic infrastructure (think transport and energy) still dominates, social infrastructure like healthcare and edtech is gaining serious momentum. Post-pandemic, these sectors are no longer afterthoughts — they’re essential pillars of sustainable growth. The takeaway? Africa’s infrastructure opportunity is vast, urgent, and increasingly green. For investors with vision, this is the moment to move from sidelines to centre stage. The future is being built — and it’s time to invest in it.

𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸: 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮 𝗮𝘁 𝗮 𝗖𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗱𝘀 As 2025 begins, Africa stands at a critical juncture, balancing macroeconomic challenges with game-changing opportunities for private equity. Here are the key trends that will shape the year ahead: 🚀 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗼𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 With U.S. rates easing and Nigerian lending rates soaring to 40%, equity funding is now a business lifeline. PE firms have a rare opportunity to acquire quality assets at attractive valuations. 🏭 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘂𝗯𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 Devaluation-driven trade surpluses are igniting a manufacturing renaissance in Nigeria. Rising drug costs and AfCFTA-enabled exports position the country as a domestic and regional production hub. 🏥 𝗛𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗙𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗿 Lagos is on track to become a healthcare hub, thanks to investments from NSIA and AFIA Care. Affordable, high-quality services could attract medical tourism and revolutionise healthcare access. 💡 𝗘𝘅𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝗞𝗶𝗻𝗴 With $10B+ in invested capital seeking returns, operational excellence will separate leaders from laggards. Growth, cost control, and shareholder value are the names of the game. 🤖 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵 & 𝗔𝗜 𝗔𝗱𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 Africa’s young population faces a paradox: job creation vs. AI adoption. The way forward? Leverage technology to boost productivity while driving innovation-led job growth. 🌍 𝗦𝗗𝗚 𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 – 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗶𝘀 𝗧𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 Only five years remain before the 2030 SDG targets are reached. Urgent opportunities exist in digital infrastructure, healthcare, and renewable energy, where private capital can bridge the gaps. 💪 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗔𝗺𝗶𝗱 𝗨𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘆 From fluctuating global rates to geopolitical tensions, Africa’s adaptability will be tested. With the right policies and robust business models, the continent remains critical to the global economy. 2025 represents an inflexion point: a rare convergence of challenges and structural opportunities. For disciplined investors, the chance to deliver strong returns and impactful outcomes is unprecedented. 💬 What trends do you see shaping private equity in Africa this year? Share your thoughts!

AFRICA OPPORTUNITY: Africa’s Growth Is Being Funded, Not Donated For a long time, Africa’s economic story has been framed around aid. That framing is now outdated. Across the continent, capital is moving in a different direction. Investment flows are rising, deal activity is accelerating, and more importantly, African capital is beginning to play a far more active role in shaping where that investment goes. From 2022 to 2024, Africa attracted more greenfield foreign direct investment than Southeast Asia. Venture capital reached roughly $4 billion in 2025, while inbound M&A activity increased by about 40% year on year. Nearly half of the venture capital raised on the continent is now coming from African investors. In Nigeria, Dangote Group has already deployed over $20 billion into refining and fertiliser capacity and is continuing to expand across sectors and geographies. In Tanzania, projects like the Kabanga nickel development are moving forward on the back of improved infrastructure and coordinated investment. Across the continent, institutions such as the Africa Finance Corporation are expanding their role, deploying billions into rail, energy, and industrial projects structured to attract additional capital. This change is not limited to the volume of capital, but also its composition. Africa still accounts for roughly 20% of the global population, but only about 3% of global GDP, and receives less than 1% of global private capital. Closing that gap will depend less on concessional funding and more on whether capital can be deployed into bankable, scalable projects. Certain enabling conditions are taking shape: the African Continental Free Trade Area is expected to increase foreign direct investment by up to 120% as trade barriers fall and markets integrate, cross-border payment systems are reducing friction in intra-African trade, and pension funds and institutional investors are gradually increasing allocations to private markets. At the same time, infrastructure investment is starting to address long-standing constraints on power, transport, and logistics projects, making resource assets, industrial zones, and urban markets more investable than ever before. The implication being that Africa’s growth story is no longer defined primarily by capital scarcity, but by the ability to structure, deploy, and scale investment effectively. That changes how opportunities need to be approached. Market entry, partnership models, capital structuring and execution capability are becoming as important as the opportunity itself. For investors and operators, the question is shifting from “whether to invest in Africa” to “how to deploy capital in a way that actually works on the ground”. To explore how investment flows, capital structures, and industrial ecosystems are shaping growth opportunities across Africa, contact Lynne Martin (email in the comments). #AfricaOpportunity #InvestmentAfrica #AfCFTA #PrivateCapital

Drawing from my studies at MIT's Finance, I've been analyzing the latest AVCA report with keen interest. Yes, VC funding dropped to $4.5B in 2023 (down $2B from 2022) - but there's a deeper story behind these numbers.  Let me break down where the smart money is flowing and why. 📈 Fintech Revolution 💳 The financial sector dominated dealmaking in 2023, capturing 48% of deal value and 23% of volume. The massive opportunity in financial inclusion across the continent continues to attract investors, with mobile money adoption and digital payments showing strong growth. Companies like Flutterwave and Chipper Cash have emerged as significant players in the space, demonstrating the continent's potential for building impactful financial infrastructure solutions. E-commerce & Logistics 🚚 E-commerce and logistics are emerging as key growth sectors, driven by: 1. Growing digital adoption 2. Increasing smartphone penetration 3. Rising demand for efficient delivery solutions Companies like Jumia Group (Pan-African) and Wasoko are reshaping how business is conducted across the continent, focusing on both B2C and B2B commerce solutions. Climate Tech🌱 One of the most exciting trends is the surge in climate-related ventures. The AVCA report reveals that climate-related ventures raised close to US$790 million in 2023. This sector is booming because: 1. Africa's unique position in addressing climate challenges 2. Strong potential for renewable energy solutions 3. Growing carbon credit markets 4. Increasing international climate funding Companies like Sun King have shown how combining clean energy solutions with innovative business models can create substantial impact. The ecosystem is showing signs of maturity. The median deal size increased to US$2.4 million in 2023, up from US$2.0 million in 2022, suggesting investors are backing more established startups. West Africa, particularly Nigeria, remains the powerhouse region for tech innovation. Looking Ahead Despite the current dip, the fundamentals driving African innovation remain strong: 1. A young, tech-savvy population 2. Rapid digital adoption 3. Massive untapped markets 4. 781 active investors in the ecosystem (AVCA, 2023) For investors and entrepreneurs watching Africa, the current market correction might actually be the perfect entry point. What trends are you seeing in the African startup ecosystem? Drop your thoughts below! 👇

Where money is actually moving in Africa (2025) Africa’s biggest deals right now? They’re not rumours. They’re already under construction. I’ve been tracking this all year Not theory. Not projections. Just real capital. Real movement. Here are 10 signals I keep seeing inside deal rooms, pitch decks, and trend trackers (excluding mining): 1. Morocco clears €32.5B hydrogen mega-projects 2. UAE expands agri-infra: 180,000 acres in Kenya 3. DP World locks key ports from Mombasa to Dakar 4. 1.4 GW of data centres power Africa’s AI boom 5. Berlin backs Walvis Bay–EU hydrogen pipeline 6. Starlink connects Africa’s banks, farms, and mines 7. dLocal–AZA €150M exit shows fintech maturity 8. Kenya’s 53MW solar earns carbon credits + DFIs 9. EU-funded 330kV line unlocks West Africa power trade 10. South Korea builds 500MW AI campus in Morocco These aren’t “emerging trends.” They’re decisions. Signed. Moving. Backed. Yet most firms still think Africa is a 2030 conversation. What can you do with this? ➤ Track these signals, not headlines ➤ Study who's funding what, and where ➤ Don’t just chase sectors, map execution zones ➤ Focus on where infra meets capital meets demand ➤ Think hydrogen, logistics, AI, food, fibre… not just rocks This is the map I build with clients across 14 countries. ♻️ Found this useful? Repost for others. P.S. What did this list shift in your thinking?

The continent of Africa has been coming up more and more frequently in conversations I’m having with capital allocators. VC investment in Africa appears to be  accelerating, and KPMG’s Q3 2025 data shows the continent may be entering a new stage of maturity. One of the standout findings in KPMG’s latest Private Enterprise Global Report (Q3 2025) is the continued growth of venture investment across Africa, even as other regions saw uneven activity. While global VC deal volume remains strong, Africa’s momentum stands out: • Funding levels have shown steady quarter-over-quarter improvement • Deal activity is becoming more diversified, expanding beyond fintech into energy, logistics, healthtech, and climate-focused solutions • Investor participation is broadening, with more global funds stepping in alongside regional VCs and development finance institutions KPMG notes that this uptick isn’t a short lived spike, it actually reflects structural progress in Africa’s startup ecosystem. Rising digital adoption, infrastructure expansion, and policy support are helping local founders scale businesses that solve real, immediate needs across the continent. The report also highlights that Africa’s VC momentum is becoming less dependent on megadeals and more driven by consistent early and growth stage investments, a sign of ecosystem health and long term sustainability. For investors, there are a few meaningful implications: ⭐ The opportunity is growing Africa is moving from being a “frontier” VC market to a formally investable region for global funds seeking diversification. ⭐ Sector diversification improves the risk profile Fintech still leads, but energy transition, agriculture, mobility, and healthcare are increasingly attracting capital in Africa. ⭐ Long  term macro tailwinds are strong Demographics, urbanization, and digital penetration continue to create a large, underserved customer base. ⭐ Global allocators are beginning to pay attention More U.S. and European investors are selectively entering the market, often through partnerships or co-investments. 👉 Bottom line: Africa’s startup ecosystem isn’t just emerging, it’s now maturing. KPMG’s Q3 2025 data suggests that the region’s VC growth is no longer an outlier but part of a broader trend of rising entrepreneurial activity and global investor interest. For allocators and fund managers looking for new geographies with long term upside, Africa definitely deserves a closer look.

If the headlines about distressed fintechs or fraud in Africa are all you are consuming these days , then you’re missing the bigger story. While challenges make the news, a major wave is quietly reshaping the ecosystem: There is a new trend in the African fintech M&A scene. Over the past year, I’ve been tracking dozens of acquisitions across the continent—spanning domestic consolidation, cross-border expansion, and strategic moves into new technology and business verticals. The data tells a different story: From Lesaka’s powerhouse streak in South Africa, to Nigerian and Egyptian fintechs making bold moves abroad, the landscape is being redrawn by deals that weave a strong theme. There are many ways to slice this: 💰 African Fintechs acquiring other African Fintechs 💰 African Fintechs acquiring international Fintechs ( 😲 ) 💰 Banking/VC acquiring African Fintechs 💰African Fintechs acquiring enablers ( this one is interesting) 💰International Fintechs acquiring African Fintechs ( BAU , usual stuff). As at EOM this July - we would have done 100% more of the deals done in the 12 months of 2024. Inside the data we see : 1️⃣ Nigeria-born Fintechs now leading the M&A streak. 2️⃣ Payments still leading as the Fintech category 3️⃣ African-focused acquisitions by African Fintechs also leading which is a new trend. Why is this 3rd point important? - it shows we are entering a mature phase where homegrown players have both the scale and vision to invest, integrate, and grow. Anyone remember when Brass was bought by a Paystack-led consortium? That wasn't just money talking , it was also Operator know-how ➡ we are knowledgeable enough and also liquid enough not to let this good opportunity waste. I think it's a totally new phase and one I'm excited about. Over the next few days I'll unpack more from the data set to unravel who is buying, why are they buying, what categories are they buying into etc. Over to you, what do you make of the infographic below 👇 ---------------------------------- For grounded, data-driven fintech insights from the African ecosystem, follow along. I’ll keep sharing what matters—based on my work at The PaymentLogue and years in the trenches, most recently in operationalising Fintech Back office platforms.

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐟 𝐰𝐞’𝐯𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐭 𝐀𝐟𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚 𝐰𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞? 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐢𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧? Most people still think of Africa as a place to extract raw materials and sell back finished goods at premium prices. That was the old playbook. The new Africa is building value not just exporting it. 𝐇𝐞𝐫𝐞’𝐬 𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝: Uganda’s Coffee Revolution For years, Uganda exported raw coffee beans while European companies like Nescafé made billions selling the final product. Now, Uganda has set up its own coffee processing plants, keeping the value chain local. It’s not just about coffee anymore it’s about ownership, branding, and profit retention. 𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐥𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐀𝐟𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚 In Nigeria, Kenya, and Uganda have their own automobile assembly projects are underway. Instead of importing fully-built vehicles, these countries are creating jobs and technical expertise by creating Bikes, Cars & Trucks locally. The automotive supply chain is no longer one-directional. 𝐄𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐜 𝐕𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞𝐬 (𝐄𝐕𝐬) 𝐌𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐀𝐟𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚 Africa isn’t just adopting EVs, it’s starting to manufacture them. This isn’t just about keeping up with global trends; it’s about ensuring Africa has a stake in the green economy. 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨𝐨. In Burkina Faso, Ibrahim Traoré is leading a bold transformation moving away from a resource-dependent economy toward productive industries that serve local needs first. This signals a new kind of leadership: one that focuses on value addition, industrial growth, and long-term prosperity. 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐧𝐨𝐰? Because the global economy is shifting. Supply chains are decentralizing. Energy systems are evolving. And the world needs new growth engines. Africa isn’t just next, it’s happening now. If we engage with Africa’s size, diversity, and potential intelligently, we won’t just do business in Africa, we’ll do business with Africa. And that’s the real future. #AfricaRising #BusinessStrategy #LocalProduction #EmergingMarkets #Leadership #EVManufacturing #CoffeeIndustry #SupplyChain #FutureOfAfrica #InvestmentOpportunities #SustainableGrowth