Iran Escalation Drives Jet Fuel Prices to Record Highs

Eight weeks could be all that separates air travel from severe fuel shortages. That risk isn’t showing up in oil prices, but in how much fuel is actually moving. Data from Kpler shows a sharp drop in global seaborne jet fuel shipments since March. Its “Daily Commodities on water” indicator tracks tanker flows in kilotons per day (k/t), and total volumes have fallen from roughly 1,400–1,600 kt/day at recent peaks to around 900–1,000 kt/day today. That’s roughly a one-third drop in a matter of weeks. The pullback is broad-based. Europe-bound shipments have declined, Asia-bound flows have weakened, and volumes into smaller regions like Oceania have also fallen. Some of this is seasonal. But the timing lines up eerily close with the escalation of the Iran war, pointing to disruption rather than normal fluctuation. Full story ⤵️ https://lnkd.in/deUmcUep

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗛𝗼𝗿𝗺𝘂𝘇 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗺𝗮𝘆 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗯𝗲 𝗰𝗿𝘂𝗱𝗲 𝗼𝗶𝗹. It may be refined fuel. That is the useful warning in this thread. The obvious discussion is usually about barrels of crude, strategic reserves and price spikes. But modern economies do not run on generic oil. They run on specific products: jet fuel, diesel, naphtha, LPG and other refined fuels that need to be available in the right place at the right time. ⚓ That is where #EnergySecurity becomes a logistics problem. Crude stocks can look reassuring on paper while refined-product buffers are much tighter. A disruption around Hormuz does not only test how much oil exists in storage. It tests refining capacity, shipping routes, insurance, port access and the ability to move usable fuel through stressed supply chains. For #Europe, that distinction matters. A maritime chokepoint crisis is not only a naval problem. It can become an aviation problem, an industrial problem and a resilience problem if the bottleneck shifts from crude availability to refined-product access. This is why #MaritimeSecurity is more than presence at sea. It is the protection of the logistics system behind energy, trade and military readiness. The thread may be focused on fuel markets, but the strategic lesson is broader: chokepoints do not need to stop everything to create pressure. They only need to expose where buffers are thinner than expected. 𝘙𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘤𝘳𝘶𝘥𝘦 𝘪𝘯 𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘶𝘴𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘦𝘭 𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦.

🛢️ ING revised its oil scenario's as the Hormuz blockade drags on. In the base case we're now looking at an average brent price of $93 in FY2026, a third higher than in FY2025. #transport sectors will need to anticipate prolonged higher fuel prices associated cost effects. Warren Patterson #aviation #shipping #trucking #automotive https://lnkd.in/e9pSn4DM

Hormuz Intelligence Daily Briefing — May 14, 2026 • Australia deploys E-7A Wedgetail to join international efforts to reopen Hormuz. • Brent Crude $105.71 (-1.73%), WTI $100.85 (-0.11%) amid market volatility. • IEA warns of 'record' oil drain; 117M barrels depleted in April. • Iran restored 30 of 33 missile sites, retaining 70% of pre-war arsenal. • US & China agree: No shipping tolls in Strait of Hormuz. • Baltic Dry Index surged 4.11% to 3,189, highest since Nov 2023. • Guangzhou port congestion spiked to 578-hour delays (~24.1 days). • Air freight rates Middle East to Europe surged, Asia-Europe up 10-15%. Read the full briefing for free: https://lnkd.in/gFze6y9H Model the impact on your own products or economy: https://lnkd.in/gxWwnPZP #InternationalTrade #HormuzStrait #TradeIntelligence #SupplyChain #GlobalTrade #OilPrices #TradeRisk #ITC

Oil prices fall as renewed hope for a Middle East peace deal take shape. Oil prices have slipped back below the $100-a-barrel mark for the first time in weeks, raising hopes that fuel costs could eventually ease for motorists. Fuel cards prices will drop by 4.5 pence per litre for next week. Discover more in our latest weekly price update: https://bit.ly/3z1EXrj

Many oil refineries were partially destroyed. This is what I predict for the next phase of the war: the funny thing is that oil-producing countries are clearly doing this to sell oil at sky-high prices. The war is just drama. I guess destroying all the oil-carrying ships and oil storage facilities would be the right choice for dealing with evil countries.

𝗗𝗶𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗙𝘂𝗲𝗹 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗔 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗙𝘂𝗲𝗹 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘀! While headlines focus on #crudeoil prices and geopolitical tensions- there’s a quiet crisis emerging! According to the IEA: • #Oil inventories are being depleted at a record pace • Supply losses have crossed 13 million barrels/day • Markets may remain in deficit until Q4  even if Strait of Hormuz flows resume And yet, the impact of the Iran conflict still feels “unnoticeable” to many. But traders know the reality. Because dieselpowers logistics, agriculture and supports GLOBAL AVIATION & TRADE When distillate fuel becomes scarce, the pressure silently moves across supply chains, freight costs, shipping timelines, inflation, and commodity pricing. The real question is: 𝗔𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗲𝗹 𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗲𝘀 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗶𝘁𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗳? What’s your biggest concern about the current energy and trade situation?  let’s discuss. 👇 #DieselCrisis #JetFuel #EnergyCrisis #GlobalTrade #CommodityMarkets #OilPrices #SupplyChain #Inflation #Geopolitics #Trading #Logistics #EnergySecurity

Oil prices reacted fast after the U.S. seized an Iranian vessel near Hormuz, with Brent near $95 and WTI close to $89, reversing last week’s sharp drop after brief signals of talks. Markets now read the situation as supply risk, not diplomacy. About 600 million barrels have faced delays in recent weeks, and tanker movement still sits below normal levels. This gap shows how quickly flows tighten when confidence drops, even before a full shutdown occurs. For import dependent countries, this is a planning test. Build reserves early, secure flexible contracts, and push local supply options. How ready are current energy plans for disruptions that shift within days. #EnergySecurity #OilMarkets #GlobalEnergy #EnergyPolicy

In the news: Oil falls after Trump says US would help free ships stranded in S: Oil prices declined over $1 a barrel as Trump revealed the US will help free ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz, impacting Brent and WTI. http://dlvr.it/TSM3Kl #OilPrices #BrentCrude #WTI #Trump #StraitOfHormuz

Hormuz oil flows creep higher as more supertankers exit 🗣️ Supertankers slipping out shows supply resilience, but it only masks rising geopolitical strain; how long before insurance or routing costs reshape crude economics, #MaritimeRisk #oil #flows 🔽 https://lnkd.in/dfZj2Mjn