What are the range of outcomes for the GPUaaS business?We see substantial variance in range of outcomes. In our base case GPUaaS model, we estimate $1.51 of FY30 EPS attributable to GPUaaS (scaling to ~26% gross margins), far below the $8.11 EPS potential in our more bullish 'Oracle Targets' scenario (scaling to ~41% gross margins). Between these two scenarios, the key drivers of variance are largely attributable to diverging views of monetization potential on incremental GPUaaS capacity, and associated investment and financing needs. To be clear, we think it is highly unlikely that Oracle would be pursuing this build out (and committing to such substantial lease agreements) for <$2.00 of FY30 GPUaaS EPS – though believe this operating model framework helps to unpack the potential earnings volatility should execution underwhelm. More constructively, our more bullish 'Oracle Targets' scenario in our GPUaaS model implies this business alone could account for ~$180 to ~$205 per share, highlighting substantial upside potential should execution prove out.
GPUaaS Business Outlook: $1.51 to $8.11 EPS Potential
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Building a >$100 billion GPUaaS Business – What's it Worth? Mounting skepticism surrounding Oracle's ramping GPU as a Service ('GPUaaS') investment cycle (both in terms of duration and magnitude) have significantly pressured Oracle's share price, down ~45% from 2025 highs and ~20% relative to F2Q26 results in December. Oracle management targeted upwards of ~$130 billion of GPUaaS revenue (relative to an estimated ~$2 billion in FY25), supporting $21 in consolidated non-GAAP earnings by FY30 at the November Analyst Day. Investor skepticism on the achievability of these targets has risen based on: 1) increasing concern on the associated counterparty risk embedded in this opportunity (as OpenAI contributes at least ~$300 billion of the $523 billion backlog balance exiting F2Q26), 2) $248 billion of lease commitments (via the most recent 10Q) expected to commence over the next two years (not yet on the balance sheet), and 3) another raise to near term capex expectations, with FY26 seen at ~$50 billion / ~75% of revenue. Our analysis attempts to unpack the key drivers necessary to achieve these targets, introducing a new GPUaaS operating model, complemented by our existing Growth Buckets framework to decompose the underlying drivers in Oracle's multi year targets.
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Over-licensing is the 𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗯𝘂𝗱𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗸𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿! It doesn’t trigger alerts. It doesn’t break systems. It just drains money… 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵! Most organizations don’t realize they’re paying for: - Users who no longer exist - Access that’s never used - Licenses bought “just in case” That’s not optimization. That’s expensive guesswork. 𝗙𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂’𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘃𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂’𝗿𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿. If you want to know where your Oracle spend is quietly leaking, 𝗹𝗲𝘁’𝘀 𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗸! #CloudCostOptimization #OracleCloud #LicenseManagement #CFOInsights #EnterpriseRisk #FinOps #AIInEnterprise #CostVisibility
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What Does Success Look Like for Oracle? Our Revised Assessment of Oracle's FY26 – FY30 Financial Framework Suggests Little Room for Error. Beyond executing against the estimated >$100 billion GPUaaS opportunity, our assessment of the underlying drivers within Oracle’s FY30 target of $21 in NGAAP EPS target suggest an expected: 1) acceleration in other areas of the business (e.g. SaaS, core OCI), 2) substantial operating leverage, and 3) favorable outcomes in financing its infrastructure build out. A combination of our new GPUaaS operating model, the explicit incorporation of finance lease impacts into our consolidated Oracle financial model (in conjunction with our Global Valuation, Accounting, and Tax team, led by Todd Castagno), alongside sensitivities of our existing 'Growth Buckets' framework informs our view of embedded growth drivers, as well as our concern the current targets leave little cushion for any execution, pricing or financing issues. All together, we see $10.02 FY30 EPS as a more reasonable bar for now relative to Oracle's FY30 ~$21 EPS target – though acknowledge a wide range of outcomes and substantial upside should execution prove out. Specifically, our sum of the parts analysis (leveraging our GPUaaS model and core earnings power build), under more bullish assumptions, supports $18.65 in EPS – still below the $21 target, but also reflecting substantial earnings growth potential. Additionally, we believe that Oracle's AI Database and AI Data Platform targets (FY30 seen ~$20 billion, implying a 50%+ 5Y CAGR) screen aggressive as well, informed by our prior work on Oracle's market positioning (see: Oracle Corporation: What Have We Learned About Oracle's Growth Equation? (23 Sep 2025), and augmented by the latest data points from our CIO survey.
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