Europe’s new gold medal? Becoming the world’s largest volatility importer 🏅 In 2025, the Union imported a record 146 bcm of liquefied natural gas (LNG) according to the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER). The US supplied 58% of those imports. That comes with a price. Because LNG is globally traded, the EU’s gas prices are increasingly shaped by supply disruptions, shipping bottlenecks and geopolitical tensions. The Union reduced its reliance on Russian pipelines after 2022, but largely by globalising its external dependency. Electrification can change this equation. At Strategic Perspectives, our modelling shows that pushing EU electrification toward 50% by 2040 could allow for a near-complete phaseout of LNG imports between 2030 and 2035 — while delivering net economic benefits. And help resolve a key paradox of Europe’s energy transition: its electricity system is increasingly domestic while its gas system grows more globally exposed.
Marin Gillot
3d
💡 One of the most striking findings from Strategic Perspectives’ modelling is that electrification is not only a decarbonisation pathway, but also an industrial and trade strategy. Reaching 50% electrification by 2040 could cut EU fossil fuel imports by two-thirds, saving an estimated €43bn per year compared to current trajectories. That would materially reduce Europe’s exposure to imported fossil fuel volatility. It would also massively expand the EU’s domestic electrotech market: 150 million EVs, 84 million heat pumps, nearly 1,900 GW of wind and solar, and 134 GW of batteries deployed across the continent. The scale of the opportunity is industrial as much as it is climatic. https://strategicperspectives.eu/boosting-electrification-in-europe/
The paradox is interesting. More domestic electricity systems alongside globally exposed gas systems creates two very different risk profiles.
XAVIER LOPEZ
2d
Europa ha sustituido una dependencia concentrada por una dependencia globalizada. El LNG fue clave para garantizar suministro tras 2022, pero también ha conectado mucho más el precio energético europeo a la volatilidad geopolítica mundial y a la competencia con Asia. La electrificación reducirá parte de esa exposición, pero el verdadero reto será gestionar el coste de estabilidad del sistema: respaldo, almacenamiento, flexibilidad y servicios de ajuste. La energía ya no es solo un debate de €/MWh. Cada vez es más un debate de resiliencia y estructura de riesgo.
Becoming the 'world's largest volatility importer' is the exact structural tax a system pays when it confuses an emergency pivot with a long-term strategy. Swapping fixed pipelines for global maritime logistics didn't liberate the market; it just exposed it to every shipping bottleneck, weather event, and geopolitical tremor on earth. While pushing domestic electrification to 50% by 2040 sounds noble on paper, a fifteen-year horizon is far too slow for a continent facing immediate, real-time economic friction. True sovereignty isn't a 2040 projection; it’s an immediate architectural imperative. If the electricity system is domestic but the gas foundation is globalised, you haven't transitioned the energy stack; you’ve just built a modern house on quicksand.
Thomas Hagemann
22h
There is really nothing new under the sun in what you are writing, and you are not making any real points. You start out by describing the facts of what has happened and what is happening, which is something largely out of anyone's control. Then you continue by describing the plans which are largely in place already as to how we can solve this problem. You are not bringing anything new to the table.
Margriet Kuijper
22h
This appears to contradict some of the findings by the recent Artelys study done for Gas Infrastructure Europe (considering electricity, hydrogen and gas demands/interactions). They found that peak gas demand would actually increase in 2040 in rapid electrification scenario's. What do you see as the main technologies that can help deliver sufficient electricty during so-called dunkelflautes? https://www.gie.eu/wp-content/uploads/filr/13757/2026.03.12_GIE_position_Quantifying_Gas_Storage_Needs.pdf
📑 One particularly striking point from the ACER report is how concentrated Europe’s LNG system remains despite diversification efforts. The US alone accounted for 58% of EU LNG imports in 2025, equivalent to roughly a quarter of total EU gas demand. ACER also warns that a full-year closure of the Strait of Hormuz could reduce global LNG supply by 27 bcm versus 2025 levels. That is a reminder that the EU’s gas security increasingly depends not only on suppliers, but on the stability of global trade routes and LNG markets themselves. https://www.acer.europa.eu/monitoring/MMR/LNG_market_developments_2026 Andreas Rüdinger Chris Rosslowe Joseph Dellatte